How the coronavirus pandemic impacted salaries in the Gulf in 2020

Salaries for the majority of professionals working in the Gulf region were unaffected or positively impacted over the past 12 months, according to recruitment major Hays.

Its 2021 Salary & Employment Report delivered largely positive data for last year despite it being a year of “unprecedented change and challenges for the global jobs market” amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The report, which was compiled from a survey of more than 3,500 employers and employees from across the region, found that while 18 percent of salaries decreased in 2020 compared to 2019, 34 percent increased and 48 percent remained the same.

“As ever, when it comes to salaries, it has been a mixed picture for professionals in the region. With the outbreak of Covid-19 and associated movement restrictions enforced on all in our personal lives, it may be easy to assume that we were all similarly impacted in our professional lives but, as our survey shows, this is just not the case,” said Chris Greaves, managing director of Hays Gulf region.

The report found that of all the different job functions, IT and tech professionals experienced the greatest number of pay increases in 2020 (38 percent), while the lowest number of salary increases were paid to those in office support and administration roles (26 percent).

“Demand and salaries for tech professionals have been relatively high as, despite the challenges Covid-19 has brought to businesses this year, the need for automation is more crucial than ever in enabling organisations to remain competitive in their respective markets. Employers are willing to pay high salaries for the top tech talent to ensure they are setup as efficiently as possible for business going forward,” said Greaves.

He added: “In contrast, demand and salaries for office support and administrative roles have decreased as the pandemic forced the closure of many offices during lockdown and this, along with the shift to more home and remote working, has made many of these roles redundant.”

When comparing different industry sectors, telecoms, pharmaceuticals and life sciences, and banking and financial services were the three most robust industries in 2020, with only 6 percent of employees experiencing a pay cut.

In contrast, the four sectors which introduced salary reductions to the highest degree were aviation, hospitality and tourism, engineering, and property, with 34 percent of employees having their salaries reduced last year.

“It is of no surprise that these industries have been most negatively impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. Lockdowns and threats of spreading the virus reduced tourism numbers overnight in March and there are still many barriers to travelling. Demand for oil and oil prices have therefore fallen and resulted in some significant cutbacks on fiscal and monetary policies of governments whose economies are somewhat reliant on the oil and gas industry – namely those in the Gulf. This has then seen many construction projects in the region go on hold or be cancelled altogether,” said Greaves.

Looking ahead
According to Hays, salary expectations for 2021 are optimistic with nearly half of employers (47 percent) planning to increase pay rates in the next 12 months. Similarly, 47 percent of employees expect their salary to increase in 2021, most commonly by 5-10 percent.

From our own experiences in the market, business activity really picked up across all sectors towards the end of 2020 and we believe this momentum will continue over the coming months, giving rise to a larger proportion of the working population receiving salary increases in 2021 compared to 2020,” noted Greaves.

He added: “Employers will undoubtedly be more cautious with spend on hiring and remuneration of staff than they were pre-pandemic but we believe that the worst impacts of the pandemic are behind us and organisations will only add to their headcount and reward staff going forward rather than freezing pay or making further redundancies.”

Source:https://www.arabianbusiness.com/jobs/456853-how-the-coronavirus-pandemic-impacted-salaries-in-the-gulf-in-2020

Gulf tourism losses due to coronavirus could reach $60bn

The Gulf’s travel and tourism industry may have lost up to $60 billion during 2020 due to the ongoing restrictions related to the global coronavirus pandemic.

Consultants Frost & Sullivan said in a new research report that the sector’s financial loss is expected to reach $50-50 billion, with hotels likely to account for up to $15 billion of the losses.

Frost & Sulllivan said the growth in the tourism and travel sector in the GCC region was about 10 percent during the past five years.

Based on this growth, it was expected that the entire spending on traveland tourism in the region would have reached $110 billion in 2020 but coronavirus dramatically changed things.

“As consumers step out of their homes, maybe for the first time since global lockdowns, they will still want the luxury of a hotel stay but would wish to limit their exposure to other guests beyond their families,” Frost & Sullivan said.

The consultants added: “While the industry is in the process of reinventing itself, it is prudent that the decision-makers understand the basics and ensure that it is not only done in the right areas but also with the right intent for the check-in bells to keep ringing and the footfalls to keep increasing. Understanding the consumer experience journey and innovating at every stage feasible, to make the consumer feel secure, will be the key.”

Dubai gradually reopened its tourism sector in July while Abu Dhabi delayed until last month to allow international visitors.

Saudi Arabia closed its air, land and sea borders again on December 20 following the spread of a new variant of Covid-19 and reopened on Sunday while Oman reopened on December 29

The research said the sector has seen growth in domestic tourism led by Saudi Arabia as most countries closed their borders to international visitors for long periods of the year.

It added that 65 percent of all hotels in the region are expected to adopt bio-bubbles – a safe and secure micro-environment, isolated from the outside world to minimise the risk of infection.

By design, it permits only authorised and accounted for people to enter the protected area after testing negative for the virus.

IPL T20 Tournament in UAE pioneered the bio-bubble and executed a tournament featuring 300+ participants across 24 matches in three cities with zero infections, the report noted.

Frost & Sullivan also said it expects the global cloud kitchen market to grow to $1 trillion by 2030, with operators having a strong foothold in the overhead heavy and predominantly urban GCC market.

“More people are staying home for extended periods as organisations adopt remote working to counter the virus effect. This is feeding demand for whatever industrial kitchens serve up and get F&B operators to deliver to homes around the country.

Plus, with residents less likely to visit crowded destinations, including restaurants, ordering-in has become a definitive need of the hour,” it said.

The report added: “In future, we will witness more experiments like ghost kitchens that can meet the growing demand for delivery… third-party delivery will be a trend that will replace the current staple of eating-out.”

https://www.arabianbusiness.com/travel-hospitality/456789-gulf-tourism-losses-due-to-coronavirus-could-reach-60bn

Heart of Europe developer says property handovers to start in December

scion Industrial Engineering

The Heart of Europe, the $5 billion (Dh18.3 billion) luxury tourism destination off the Dubai coastline, will start handing over private villas and beach palaces to investors in December, it was announced on Monday.

Developer Kleindienst said the handovers will be part of its phased delivery of about 2,000 residential and hospitality units in phase one of the project.

The announcement comes as construction of St Tropez, the fifth hotel of phase one, is nearing completion and will recreate the famous French Riviera town with a private long beach, restaurants, promenade and luxury yachts and boats.

Overall, the ultra-luxury island will host around 4,000 units spread across 15 hotels and resorts in a cluster of inter-connected six islands and a floating Lido Island about 4km off the Jumeirah coast of Dubai.

Phase one components will commercially open once the situation normalises after the Covid-19 pandemic, Kleindienst said.

It added that construction of the project’s landmarks, including the Floating Seahorse Villas, Sweden Beach Palaces, Germany Island Villas, Honeymoon Island, Portofino Hotel and Côte d’Azur Resort, are “progressing in full speed”.

“At the beginning of the year, we made a commitment to deliver part of the phase 1 of the Heart of Europe to the owners by the end of 2020,” said Josef Kleindienst, chairman of Kleindienst Group, said. “At that time, we were not fully aware of the devastating effects of the coronavirus pandemic and its magnitude.

“However, despite the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic, we were determined to go ahead with our planned development and as the lockdown was announced in March, we shifted our entire team to the Heart of Europe islands and continued to construct. During the lockdown, we were isolated from the mainland and confined to the island and focused on construction.

“Now, I am pleased to announce that, we are ready to hand-over residential units to home-owners so that they can fit out the interiors. This reflects our strong commitment to the investors and as they start taking over, I am also excited to announce that we have started construction of the phase two of the project – and plan to complete the development of the island by 2022.”

Since about 90 percent of the developments of the island are hospitality units, hotels and resorts will be opened when large-scale tourism traffic starts to pick up, he added.

Kleindienst said construction of St Tropez is on a “fast track” and has already topped out, and will be connected to the UAE’s largest unbroken private pristine beaches stretching up to 700 metres. It is one of the 15 hotels that are being built on the Heart of Europe.

St Tropez will offer seven cultural festivals annually.

Source:https://www.arabianbusiness.com/property/455306-heart-of-europe-developer-says-property-handovers-to-start-in-december

Giving the Service Sector a Virtual Helping Hand

Scion Industrial Engineering

One of the positive points to come from the global coronavirus pandemic has been the ingenuity of some businesses to keep operations going throughout what could be described as the ultimate stress test. The need for social distancing and the resulting widespread supply chain disruption often means turning to technologies which may not have previously been deployed, out of necessity rather than choice. In fact, recent IFS research on business responses to the global pandemic found 52.5% of businesses plan to increase spending on digital transformation.

When a large proportion of revenue generated by providing direct aftermarket services to a widespread customer base comes under threat, it’s obvious that continuity is key to ensure they still receive the highest level of service possible in a difficult time. This is exactly what IFS customer Munters – a global leader in sustainable, energy-efficient air treatment solutions – realized at the very beginning of the pandemic. It strategically pinpointed remote assistance technology as the key to serving customers and supporting in-field and factory-based operations.

On-site challenges – global scope
Munters manufactures, sells and maintains specialist equipment for demanding industrial sectors where controlling temperature and humidity is mission-critical. To reduce reliance on site visits, the company looked to remote software tools and merged reality to create functionality enabling teams to interface remotely with customers and improve efficiency by being able to perform remote resolution and diagnosis—a critical step in its journey to servitization.

The company wasted no time when it realized its servitization efforts could be in danger, creating a level of urgency to make remote assistance technology operational in the shortest window of time possible.

The challenge was how to go global with the solution in such a short time window. With five production units in the United States and over 20 locations worldwide, the company’s business model relies heavily on completing on-site visits—including even before the initial installation of equipment.

A remote helping hand
The chosen technology needed to transcend location, skillset and environment. The goal was to both provide remote support to field technicians and to support a new manufacturing production line without sending experts to the site.

IFS Remote Assistance makes it possible for teams to be anywhere, instantly—this includes field technicians and third-line support using the solution on their mobile devices, as well as experts guiding the opening of the new production line using Vuzix smart glasses. It provides opportunities for remote customer support and resolution, remote diagnosis to increase first-time fix rates, better utilization of valuable resources, as well as more rapid employee training and knowledge transfer.

Merging reality to provide real business benefits
Munters technicians can now take advantage of the features and hands-free collaboration opportunities offered by merged reality environments. This means users can collaborate and interact in real-time while telestrating, freezing images, using hand gestures and even adding real objects into the merged reality environment—whether that’s technician to third-line support, technician to customer, or expert to manufacturing facility.

With modern remote assistance tools, time to value can be rapid and what minimal user training is required is extremely intuitive. In the case of Munters, a pilot was underway in just six days and training took less than two hours. The company has now extended the solution to more than 200 users globally in just two weeks.

Merged reality becomes the new normal
The example of Munters successfully adapting to unprecedented circumstances demonstrates not only how remote assistance technology can ensure business continuity during a global pandemic, but also the immense potential to further leverage the solution once business returns to a more normal state.

When considering how this technology can modernize operations, the benefits are clear to see. Efficiency gains come from the ability to perform maintenance inspections remotely, improve first-time fix rates as a result of remote diagnosis, reduce the number of technicians sent to sites and provide remote support to manufacturing facilities.

Make the jump now to future-proof service success
Although a necessity in the current global environment, transformational technologies will prove their value long into the future. Merged reality and remote assistance for example, will change the way customers interact with service providers, setting in a new bar in terms of service levels and satisfaction.

Those who stay on the side-lines may find themselves out of the game and playing catch-up for years to come. Those challengers, like Munters, who act now to differentiate their service offerings will put themselves way ahead—not just in the current climate but into the future as well.

Source:https://industrytoday.com/giving-the-service-sector-a-virtual-helping-hand/

Brunei Oil and Gas Market, Size, Share, Outlook and Growth Opportunities Report 2020-2026

Scion Industrial Engineering Pvt. ltd.

Recovering prices, strong demand from the transportation industry and modern developments of oil and gas exploration and production activities are some of the factors driving Brunei oil and gas market growth.

Increasing exports and imports of oil and gas on the account of surged demand across the world are fuelling the market growth. Global oil demand is estimated at 104 MMbbl/d in 2025 and natural gas continues to expand its share across major markets. Oil and gas companies will need to expand their production to meet emerging demand in the foreseeable future.

The oil and gas industry is undergoing rapid transformations across the world. The innovation of new technologies has allowed unconventional drilling that enhances oil & gas production. New business models and services are rapidly evolving and assisting to reduce the cost of operations in upstream oil & gas, which in turn promoting the market growth.

Sustained growth in the consumption of natural gas, petroleum, and petrochemical products is one of the major growth drivers for oil and gas companies in Brunei. Companies operating in the industry can benefit from this opportunity through investing and participating in the oil and gas trade. The major Brunei companies are undertaking various oil and gas pipeline projects and contracts to expand their production capacities and sustain their position in the oil and gas industry.

In Brunei, future oil and gas consumption will increase due to key factors such as a strong economy, population growth, and fuel economy. The dependence on oil and gas is further expected to increase as the country’s infrastructure continues to heavily rely on petroleum-based products.

The market players are also undertaking several investment plans to cater to the increasing demand for oil and gas products. Government policies and support related to the exploration and production of oil and gas are playing a major role in the industry and encouraging the companies to boost Brunei oil and gas investments.

Brunei Oil and Gas Market research identifies that the competition continues to intensify year-on-year. The report covers the 2019 scenario and growth prospects of the Brunei Oil and Gas market for 2020-2026.

Source:https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191205005820/en/Brunei-Oil-Gas-Market-Size-Share-Outlook

UNWTO and Italy look ahead as official visit marks restart of European tourism

Scion Industrial Engineering Pvt. Ltd.

The leadership of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) is on its first official visit to a Member State since restrictions on travel were introduced in response to COVID-19. The four-day trip to Italy (1-5 July) comes as the United Nations specialized agency for tourism guides the sector’s restart and destinations across the Schengen Zone open their borders to tourists once again.

Throughout the COVID-19 crisis, UNWTO has led tourism’s response through a series of high-level virtual meetings, uniting the sector, advocating for political and economic support and working with Member States to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and lay the foundations for recovery. Now, as borders in some parts of the world are carefully re-opening back to tourism, UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili is meeting face-to-face with political and tourism leaders to change gears. The official visit to Italy marks the start of this shift, comprising a series of high-level meetings in Rome, Milan and Venice.

Italy “world tourism leader”
Secretary-General Pololikashvili said: “Italy is a world tourism leader, a strong ally of UNWTO and committed to making tourism a pillar of sustainable economic development. We must build on the determination and solidarity that characterized our joint response to the crisis to grow back stronger and better with sustainability and innovation among our most important guiding principles.”

In Rome, Mr Pololikashvili held meetings at the highest levels of government. To further strengthen the bilateral collaboration on the road ahead to reactivate tourism and its economic and social benefits, was the connecting thread of the meetings held with Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, Ministers of Culture, Cultural Heritage and Tourism, Dario Franceschini and of Foreign Affairs Luigi Di Maio, and the city’s Mayor Virginia Elena Raggi. The UNWTO delegation also met with Cardinal Parolin of the Vatican City, building on last year’s audience with Pope Francis.

In Milan, the Secretary-General met with Mayor Guiseppe Sala – advancing the 2nd UNWTO Sports Tourism Start-Up Competition as the city prepares for the 2026 Winter Olympics – and with the President Attilio Fontana of the Lombardy region.

In addition to learning of Italy’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the official visit also offered the opportunity to look to the future and further UNWTO’s priorities of making tourism more sustainable, resilient and innovative. On the opening day of the trip, Rome Fiumicino Airport was presented with a special plaque as UNWTO recognized its commitment to sustainability. Furthermore, all three cities were formally invited to become part of the UNWTO League of Cities for Sustainable Tourism Initiative.

New Special Ambassadors for Responsible Tourism Appointed
The official visit also presented the opportunity for UNWTO to highlight the role gastronomy and fashion, two of Italy’s most celebrated industries, can play in growing tourism and making the sector more diverse and relevant. In recognition of their work, acclaimed chef Gino Sorbillo and fashion designer Giorgio Armani were appointed UNWTO Special Ambassadors for Responsible Tourism. In their new roles, they will use their status and influence to promote UNWTO’s work in guiding tourism in these challenging times and highlight the sector’s important role as an economic driver, leading employer and promoter of unique cultural heritage.

Source:https://www.traveldailynews.com/post/unwto-and-italy-look-ahead-as-official-visit-marks-restart-of-european-tourism

ATF TRAVEX 2020 opens for business in Brunei Darussalam

Scion Industrial Engineering pvt. ltd.

Business activities formally begin today, the first day of ATF 2020 TRAVEX, between top travel and tourism suppliers across all 10 ASEAN destinations – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam – plus India, and global buyers.

Held in conjunction with official meetings by ASEAN NTO, ministerial delegates, association boards and tourism groups that began since 12 January, TRAVEX is ATF’s 3-day Travel Exchange component. The business-led exhibition is dedicated to showcasing ASEAN destination products and services and promoting inbound and intra travel within the region, coupled with structured appointments between ASEAN sellers and buyers from 43 countries including Australia, Azerbaijan, China PR, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Latvia, Macedonia, South Korea, Sweden, Poland, Russia and United States.

“Visit Malaysia 2020 will be featured at ATF 2020 TRAVEX. We are eager to invite all industry players to unite and welcome 30 million tourist to Malaysia through the focus on sustainability tourism, arts and culture” commented Mr Noran Bin Ujang, Director of International Promotion – South East Asia of Tourism Malaysia.

Said Kyaw Pyay Oo, Managing Director of Asian Tour Co., Ltd., Myanmar, “Our purpose for attending ATF 2020 is to seek partnerships with adventure and incentive travel suppliers, DMCs, green product & service providers and establish connections with hotels and resorts and travel management companies.”

Among this year’s event highlights is today’s business speed-dating segment – a newly-added feature to the TRAVEX programme – provided plenty of opportunity for delegates to build their lead generation network ahead of exhibition and appointment days that commence on 15 and 16 January.

To optimise on-site efficiency, all exhibitors and buyers were able to schedule up to 100% of their appointments prior to arriving in Brunei.

Also debuting at this year’s ATF TRAVEX is Singapore Tourism Board’s (STB) Campfire Sessions focusing on Muslim Travel, taking place tomorrow morning and afternoon at the Singapore-branded Buyers Lounge within the exhibition hall. Co-Founder of Have Halal, Will Travel, Mr Mikhail Melvin Goh and Chief Executive of CrescentRating & Halaltrip, Mr Fazal Bahardeen will be touching on topics spotlighting Singapore as a Muslim-friendly travel destination, as well Muslim-Travel trends, alongside moderator Ms Dawn Ng, STB’s Area Director of Malaysia & Brunei.

Anticipated networking highlights encompass luncheons by Tourism Malaysia and Tourism Promotions Board, Philippines and reception and dinner by Ministry of Tourism, Cambodia. Host Country, Brunei Darussalam will also be leading numerous functions such as luncheons for buyers and media, as well as the Opening ceremony and welcome dinner for all delegates taking place on 14 January evening.

Complimentary pre-show tours of Brunei on 13 and 14 January provided delegates an insight into Brunei’s abode of peace. Post-TRAVEX days, the experience continues beyond the show floor with charming optional tour itineraries such as a cruise along Brunei River or outdoor adventures at the Ulu Temburong National Park from 17 January onwards.

More than 109 international and local media representatives are also in attendance to cover the latest insights and first-hand destination developments by all 10 National Tourism Organisations and ASEAN Secretariat through the media briefings starting from 14 January.

Said Minister of Primary Resources and Tourism, Brunei, Dato Seri Setia Awang Haji Ali bin Apong, “As we look towards the next decade of a more prosperous and relevant ASEAN, member states must continue to collectively innovate and seek meaningful initiatives to increase tourism growth while retaining the heritage, tradition and identity that make us unique for future generations. This 2020, with Brunei Darussalam hosting the ATF, we welcome you to explore a country where you can trek into unspoilt rainforests and experience the tranquil beauty of our lush greenery, as well as dive amongst abundant coral reefs and historic shipwrecks. Your Bruneian adventure awaits!”

SOurce:https://www.traveldailynews.com/post/atf-travex-2020-opens-for-business-in-brunei-darussalam

More than 6 million foreign tourists visit Iran in 2017

iran tourism

Once off limits to many because of international sanctions, Iran is making a big comeback as a tourist destination.
More than 6 million people visited Iran in the year ending March 2017, up 50% on the previous year and three times the number in 2009, according to official data.

The surge in visitors follows the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers that resulted in many sanctions being lifted early the following year.

European airlines such as British Airways and Lufthansa (DLAKY) resumed direct flights to the country, and Iranian authorities relaxed visa requirements. And as more people arrive, demand for accommodation is skyrocketing.

That’s creating opportunities for local entrepreneurs and foreign businesses.

Unlike some Western firms, who are reluctant to invest in Iran because they fear President Trump could yet torpedo the nuclear deal, international hotel chains are moving fast to meet the need for more rooms.

France’s Accor (ACCYY) was the first chain to open in Iran in 2015. It now operates two hotels there.

Spain’s Melia (SMIZF) will open its first hotel next year. Rotana of the United Arab Emirates also has one hotel in the pipeline for early next year and plans three more by 2020.

EasyHotel, a U.K.-based budget chain, is reported to have signed a deal in July to deliver 500 rooms. It did not respond to a request for comment.

And the market clearly has room for many more players. Iran wants to attract more than 20 million visitors by 2025, according to the state tourism agency.

Many of the new visitors are young backpackers from Europe and Asia, drawn by Iran’s history and culture. The most popular destinations include the ancient cities of Esfahan and Shiraz. It’s also home to Persepolis, a UNESCO World Heritage site.

Many of those travelers are looking for budget accommodation, said Jalal Rashedi, who runs five hostels across the country. He offers bed and breakfast for as little as $15 a night, including internet access.

Trump keeps scaring investors away from Iran

“During the past few years we have had a rise in the number of tourists who are young, and they’re individual travelers,” he told CNN. “They’re young, curious, adventurous people who want to discover the truth about Iran, and they mostly stay at hostels.”

A World Economic Forum report earlier this year named Iran as the world’s cheapest travel destination.

But travelers still face obstacles.

Americans, Brits and Canadians need to apply for a visa in advance, while citizens of many other Western countries can get one on arrival.

And because some sanctions remain in place, the country has few links to international banking networks and Western credit cards won’t work there.

That means it can be difficult to make payments in advance to secure reservations. To get around that, Rashedi launched a website to allow travelers to make reservations at his hostels, and those operated by others, without payments.

Source:http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/05/news/economy/iran-tourism-boom/index.html

Iraq to offer 3 refineries for investment in Kuwait conference

Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) Iraq plans to offer three of its oil refineries to investors during an upcoming conference of Iraq donors, the government said Thursday.

Anadolu Agency quoted a statement from the state’s investment authority saying that the refineries include Faw, in the southern Basra province, with a production capacity of 300.000 barrels a day, besides another in Anbar (150.000 barrels per day) and Nasseriya, Dhi Qar province (150.000 barrels per day).

Iraq imports and estimated USD5 billion in petroleum products for local demand, most of which is used for electricity generation.

Iraq’s need for petroleum products intensified after Islamic State militants took over the Baiji refinery in Salahuddin province, which secured nearly a third of the country’s needs with a capacity of 170.000 barrels per day.

Kuwait will be hosting Iraq donors conference from 12th to 14th February. Nearly 70 participants are expected at the event which will hopefully collect USD100 billion dollars for the reconstruction of the country and repair of damage caused by the war against Islamic State militants.

The investment authority said last Tuesday that Iraq was planning to offer a total of 157 projects to investors during the conference.

Iraq’s crude oil exports for December stood at nearly 109.9 billion barrels, with revenues of nearly USD6.5 billion.

Source: https://www.iraqinews.com/business-iraqi-dinar/iraq-offer-3-refineries-investment-kuwait-conference/

Oil and the Iran Protests

scion Industries

It doesn’t take much these days to remind oil traders that Middle East geopolitical risk can raise oil prices. Unrest in Iranian cities is the latest case in point. News and video records of major protests in Iran pushed Brent prices to $67 a barrel before analysts started pointing out that the risk to oil supply from the protesters themselves was low. That analysis could be too sanguine. The protests in Iran underscore a rising risk across the Persian Gulf: disgruntled populations are willing to sabotage oil facilities to make themselves heard.

Iran has been the site of such attacks of late, especially in the oil rich Khuzestan province known for its Arab separatist movement. In a sign that Iran likely takes the potential for sabotage seriously, an Arab separatist leader who was known to advocate for attacks on oil facilities in Iran was gunned down in Europe recently.

More on:

Iran Oil and Petroleum Products Geopolitics of Energy Political Movements Energy and Environment
Late last year, Bahrain accused Iran of being behind a terrorist attack on a pipeline that brings oil from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain. Saudi Aramco has also boosted security at its offshore oil facilities on its maritime border with Iran. Those fields, including the Marjan oil field that is shared across the border with Iran, are slated for expansion by Aramco. Iran is also increasing production on its side of the field, called Foroozan. Khuzestan province is also home to fields that are important to Iran’s ability to increase its domestic oil production utilizing Chinese investment. Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of being involved in recent missile attacks from Yemen that targeted Riyadh airport and the royal palace.

The accuracy of the thesis that Iranian protests won’t spread to oil workers the way they did in late 1978 will depend in large measure on whether Iranian government repression of discontent can be successful in putting down insurgency, as it was in 2009. It is important to remember that the sequence of events that led to the fall of the Shah of Iran took months to unfold. Protests were unrelenting at the end of 1978 and oil workers were eventually motivated by the chaos to deny the military access to fuel to prevent them from killing even more Iranian citizens. As conflict escalated on the streets, oil workers walked off the job, eventually bringing Iranian oil exports to zero.

The Iranian government is well aware of this risk. In 2010, in the aftermath of internal instability in 2009, it increased the presence of the revolutionary guard in the oil sector to prevent a repeat of 1979. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also never seemed to embrace the notion—put forward by reformists—that Iran’s economy would benefit from integration with the global economy. Rather, Khamenei has advocated vociferously that Iran needs to stay the course on an economy of “resistance” where indigenous economic capacities are part of the battlefield and individuals sacrifice personal consumer needs in favor of the commanding heights of the state. That view seems to lend credence to commentary that Iran’s hardliners themselves started the protests initially to weaken reformers by highlighting the failure of the nuclear deal to bring about tangible economic benefits. If reports of protest slogans are correct, the population could be tiring of the hardliner view that it is a higher calling to remain cut off from the global economy to fund the security of Shiite compatriots via wars in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. Rather, like citizens in many places around the world, especially countries with oil, some Iranians are asking why they should make such sacrifices for a government that lacks accountability and is excessively corrupt.

Oil markets will be watching carefully to see if the Donald J. Trump administration uses Iran’s repression of its own people as a reason to refuse to issue the waiver to keep the United States from violating the terms of the nuclear deal or if the U.S. president—once again—refuses to recertify Iran’s compliance with the deal, kicking the issue back to a reluctant Congress. Markets will be looking for any signs that U.S. action will make it more difficult for Iran to sell its oil or to raise new oil and gas investments in the Iranian industry.

But as tempting as that grandstanding could be, the United States should probably take no hasty actions on this one until it can give the Iranian people a chance to be fully heard.

If reports are accurate, Khamenei’s long standing concept that his fellow citizens should continue to sacrifice in a resistance economy to keep the upper hand in regional conflicts could be losing ground. The United States should do nothing to hinder that momentum.

Acting out in ways that reconfirm the long standing hardliner story line that the United States will always be an enemy to Iran would be a mistake at this time. Rather, the United States should take a breath and with uncharacteristic patience, do nothing regarding sanctions until it can see if the chips fall in a more favorable place.

Source: https://www.cfr.org/blog/oil-and-iran-protests