Made in Jordan: Inside the Unexpected Powerhouse of Garment Manufacturing

AMMAN, Jordan — The ancient city of Petra, 70 years of regional turmoil and the spiralling Syrian refugee crisis. All spring to mind at the mere mention of Jordan, the Middle Eastern nation that shares a border with Iraq and Syria. Few of us, however, would think of its vibrant garment manufacturing industry.

But look at the labels stitched into clothing made by Gap, Victoria’s Secret, Hanes, Eddie Bauer, Lands’ End or Macy’s and there it is: “Made in Jordan.” Garment exports make up roughly 20 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.

In the arid outskirts of Jordan’s cities sit a growing number of industrial parks that house garment factories quietly churning out clothing for some of the world’s most recognisable brands.

There are currently 75 factories producing everything from towels to t-shirts, fleeces to frilly knickers. They account for 95 percent of the industrial workforce, and 95 percent of apparel exports.

Despite its reputation as the safest place in the Middle East, instability in Jordan is at an all-time high. More than one million Syrian refugees are jostling for shelter and a few Jordanian dinars a day (one dinar is equivalent to $1.41). Jordan is the only Arab country still active in the coalition against Isis, and the threat of destabilisation from Syria and Iraq have authorities working all-out to protect the country’s northern and eastern borders.

Jordan’s political opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood, is breaking apart, allowing the dissenters to slip under the radar. The country’s ruler, King Abdullah, has increasingly relied on financial and practical support from his allies, such as the United States, to support not only his people, but also asylum seekers from Syria, Iraq, Sudan and Yemen. Many diplomats in Amman privately admit they think of a terrorist attack in terms of ‘when,’ not ‘if.’

Yet, somehow, the industry is growing at a time when all common-sense indicators suggest it shouldn’t be.

“When you step into Jordan, you never feel the regional tumult,” says Radhakrishnan Putharikkal, president of the Classic Fashion factory on the sprawling, 118 hectare Al-Hassan Industrial Estate just outside the northern city of Irbid.

Classic is now the leading garment manufacturer in the Kingdom. Its exports accounted for nearly 13 percent of Jordan’s $1 billion garment exports to the United States last year, according to Jordan’s Trade Ministry. Established in 2003, it has grown from a small-scale operation (300 people, 130 machines and $2 million turnover per year) to 15,000 employees, 7,500 machines spinning out close to 200,000 garments each day, and an annual turnover of more than $250 million.

“Jordan’s stability and location made us choose it over Morocco or Tunisia, and our calculations were 100 percent right,” says Putharikkal.

Industry origins

In contrast to its neighbours Israel and Saudi Arabia, Jordan is a poor country, devastatingly dry with few resources: potash, phosphates, concrete and tourism top the list. Oil is imported, along with nearly half the country’s food and the bulk of manufactured goods. Despite the economics, how Jordan became a manufacturing powerhouse is more about politics than purchasing power.

When the 1994 peace accord was hammered out between Jordan and Israel, a key economic element was introduced: the Qualifying Industrial Zone (QIZ). Under this legislation, goods produced in collaboration with Israel could enjoy freer access to the US market. The QIZs were packaged as a “peace dividend,” says Jordan scholar Sean Yom, a political science professor at Temple University in Philadelphia.

“They were presented this way to convince many Jordanians that the 1994 peace accord with Israel would benefit them. It was supposed to catalyse the export sector, spread more jobs and attract foreign investment.”
This happened, but only up to a point: the group that benefited most from foreign investment was merchants and businessmen, people who already had financial capital and could leverage their connections to secure new contracts, and as Yom puts it, “rake in more profit.”

“Most of the jobs initially went to foreign labour anyway, before a backlash forced managers to hire locally,” says Yom.

Some experts say the export potential of the QIZ project became moot in 2000, when the US inked its free trade agreement with Jordan, cutting out the need for an Israel connection. But others say the QIZs served another purpose: fast-tracking the free trade deal with the US.

“Without these factories in the QIZ zones we could never have started the process to attract these Hong Kong and China manufacturers and the US trade,” says Halim Salfiti, the former chief executive of Al Tajamouat Industrial City.

“There was a process of the foreign manufacturers educating the locals by showing them how to do this. The foreign manufacturers started working here, then they started trading. And they had relationships with buyers, so for Jordanian manufacturers starting up, that was a door-opener. It was easy to market,” says Salfiti.

With most of the old QIZ factories growing and new industrial areas springing up under the US-Jordan free trade agreement, business boomed. In 2006 and 2007, the multi-billion dollar business of exporting manufactured goods (mainly clothing) was Jordan’s largest export.

Workforce challenges

One area where the QIZ project failed, and where the garment manufacturing industry under the US free trade agreement is still floundering, is around employing locals, particularly women. Official statistics show that for years, the labour market participation of girls and women aged 15 and above has stagnated at around 12.6 percent, compared to 60.3 percent of men in the same age bracket.

Classic has struggled with this in its urban factories, which employ around 2,000 Jordanian workers. Cultural factors are significant: Jordan is a socially conservative country and in rural areas and smaller cities, like Ajloun, where Classic has a satellite factory mainly employing Jordanians, women tend to withdraw from work upon marrying.

Anecdotally, among Jordanians, factory work tends to be seen as shameful, and even in areas with high levels of unemployment, meeting labour demands with skilled or trainable local staff is challenging.

Classic has set up a crèche as a way of retaining its 90 percent female workforce at its Ajloun factory. But employee turnover is between 15 percent and 20 percent, mainly due to marriages.

Local employees are also more expensive: Jordanian workers receive an additional 80 dinar per month for their living expenses, whereas international workers receive in-kind payment in the form of housing, food and living costs.

Foreign workers typically come to Jordan on three-year contracts and work six eight-hour days, with 125 percent minimum wage pay for overtime and 150 percent for holidays. Many are members of Jordan’s General Trade Union of Workers in Textile Garment and Clothing Industries, which in 2013 saw a landmark collective bargaining agreement on wages, employment conditions and seniority issues take effect.

All of this is a marked improvement over conditions during the sector’s most prolific stretch, around 2006 to 2007. Factory owners and subcontractors were accused of a range of workers’ rights abuses at the factories making clothing for Victoria’s Secret, as well as Levi’s, Gap and Calvin Klein. A New York Times investigation accused Jordan of running sweatshops where workers were abused and even imprisoned.

Imported labour

Better Work Jordan runs a workers’ centre at Al Hassan where foreign workers can access social support, prayer rooms, information on human rights and labour rights, and take part in social activities from holiday celebrations to games. The organisation also offers employers training in labour law and human rights.

Linda Kalash, executive director of Tamkeen Fields for Aid, a Jordanian non-governmental organisation that works to protect migrant workers’ rights, says the situation still isn’t good enough.

“The violations continue,” she told BoF at a meeting in her Amman office. She faces a steady stream of migrant workers in need of help, from making complaints about treatment on the factory floor to requests for legal help with hefty fees incurred for breaking contracts early. Kalash says grievances are fewer and less egregious than in past years, but she and her team are still run off their feet.

What next?

As Jordan’s tourism industry collapses in the face of regional chaos, revenue from garment manufacturing is becoming more valuable. Growing the sector and employing more locals and more women is the next challenge. And here, progress begets progress: nine months ago Jordan’s Ministry of Labour inked a deal to establish a new, partly-subsidised factory in the country’s deprived Husseiniya district. The project guarantees 500 jobs for local women.

With a busy, high-functioning port in Aqaba on the Red Sea and access to Israel’s Haifa port through the Allenby Bridge crossing, Jordan is well placed to be a global manufacturing hub. Shipping from Jordan to the US is quicker and cheaper than shipping from Southeast Asia, and as Classic’s Putharikkal points out, Jordanian factories are developing a reputation for good work delivered on time.

As regional tensions ratchet up, it’s undeniable that some sort of change is coming. But in Jordan’s factories, for now, at least, it’s business as usual.

Source:https://www.businessoffashion.com/articles/global-currents/made-in-jordan-garment-manufacturing-industry

Oman’s new mining legislation set to address stakeholder demands

As part of PAM’s responsibilities in sector governance and organisational structure, the primary objective of the law is to address the factors that have historically hindered foreign investment in Omani mining. Drafting was reportedly completed in 2015, with the legislation submitted to government ministries for review.

Priority Issues
Subject to final approval, the new mining law is expected to decrease complexity in the sector and make operating in Oman easier and more transparent for potential investors. The draft law envisages, for example, longer mining leases, making it attractive for investors to enter the sector. It is also expected to centralise a process of licensing applications that currently involves multiple agencies.

Stakeholders are hoping that the regulatory revamp will lead to increased legal clarity. “Mining has huge potential in Oman, but we have yet to see a large-scale project be undertaken in the country, and thus regulating the industry is still a work in progress,” Ernst Grissemann, managing director for Bauer Nimr, a German construction firm, told OBG.

To create the draft legislation, PAM reviewed mining sector regulatory frameworks from around the world, reportedly focusing on provisions including local content, investment incentives, investor clarity, extending the duration of licences, penalties for lack of investment and benefits for local communities. Fixed royalties and tax rates are expected to be purposefully left out of the new law in favour of adjustable royalties that can incentivise investment by triggering lower rates during periods of very low commodity prices. Hilal bin Mohammed Al Busaidy, PAM’s CEO, has suggested that local content development will be a priority objective once the new law comes into force.

The new law is also intended to implement more regulations to protect the mining sector and prescribe heftier fines and jail terms for violations, a concern regularly raised by members of the Majlis Al Shura, the lower chamber of the Council of Oman.

“Oman’s mining law needs more teeth to combat evaders of royalty. The government is losing tens of millions of rials in revenue from this sector,” said Tawfeeq Al Lawati, a member of the Majlis Al Shura, speaking to local press in 2015. “Although the government has put in place a ban on exports of mining products in the form of raw materials, there are several companies and individuals that do the opposite,” he said. Al Lawati attributes a sharp rise in construction material prices on the local market to poor regulation, which enables exploitation by companies.

Sector Impact
Despite the anticipated positive effects of the new law on the sector, the immediate impact of PAM’s draft legislation has been to slow down the licensing process. Even well-capitalised companies report having difficulties obtaining licences for new projects, with the authority seemingly holding off on many applications until the new law is ratified.

However, the longer-term implications of the law are expected to be more positive. By rationalising the mining sector and streamlining unnecessarily bureaucratic licensing processes, PAM is providing real incentives for investors looking to enter the mining sector in Oman.

“What sector players want more than anything from the anticipated mining law is a clear and concise framework under which we can operate,” Dean Cunningham, CEO of Kunooz Oman Holding, told OBG. “This should be established based on international benchmarks and best practices in order to ensure the attractiveness of the sector to global capital,” Cunningham added.

Source:https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/analysis/improved-regulation-sight-new-legislation-expected-address-stakeholder-demands

Industry at the forefront of economy, say experts

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Muscat: Experts discussed the importance of the industrial sector to the Sultanate’s future, ahead of Oman’s Day of Industry, tomorrow.

“The industrial sector is a pillar of the national economy and contributes to the creation of employment opportunities for Omani youth,” Managing Director of Sohar Steel Group Khalid Tawfiq Abdul Rasoul said.

The industrial sector has become the backbone of Oman’s drive to become a manufacturing-based economy because of the government’s prioritisation of localising industries and diversifying away from oil.

Numerous initiatives were launched to achieve this objective, including the establishment of a bus factory and other projects designed to build local capacities in multiple areas.
“Industry remains at the forefront of the world’s economic sectors and plays an important role in increasing the income levels of countries and establishing sustainable job opportunities for its youth,” Dr. Said Al Mahrami, a member of the State Council, said.

Economic and industrial experts stressed that Oman was steadily moving towards achieving sector-wide development, leading to the construction of specialised industrial zones, new roads, and ancillary services. “Industry has the benefit of three revenue streams, which are difficult to sustain in other sectors, due to its ability to add value to oil, mining, farm and other sectors.

“In addition to achieving financial returns through export or supplying the local market with commodities and keeping the largest amount of money inside the country, which in turn contributes to the expansion of the economic cycle and doubling of trading,” Al Mahrami added.

The use of technology in national industries has become necessary to reduce costs and compete globally. Oman’s successful push on both fronts drew praise for industrialists.

Industry Day

“Since the founding of Omani Industry Day, we have witnessed an increase in the number of factories, a growth in the finance of industrial projects, as well as funds for SMEs,” Kamla Al Awfi, CEO of World Natural Stones, said.

Sulaiman Al Rashedi, Chief Executive Officer of Raki, said: “The industrial sector has contributed to the progress of many countries, such as Singapore and Japan, which despite having few natural resources are among the strongest economies in the world, thanks to their industrial prowess.”

“We look forward to seeing large industrial cities in the time to come,” he added.

Saudi Arabian economy ‘to return to growth’ in 2018

The kingdom’s real GDP growth dropped 1 percent in the first half of 2017

The Saudi Arabian economy will remain contracted in 2017 before returning to “modest” growth of 1.3 percent in 2018, a report has claimed.

Oil production cuts as part of the OPEC agreement will see oil sector growth remain in negative territory in the second half of this year, while the private non-oil sector continues to face headwinds, amid government spending cuts to a number of infrastructure projects, according to an analysis from BMI Research.

Real GDP growth in the kingdom stood at -1 percent year on year in the first half of 2017, after having alreadty contracted by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of the year.

This contraction was largely driven by the oil sector, which accounts for over 40 percent of GDP and contracted by 2 percent in the first six months of 2017, BMI said.

Meanwhile, the non-oil sector has also struggled to regain traction, expanding by a sluggish 0.6 percent year-on-year over the same period – up from 0.2 percent throughout 2016.

Based on conservative expectations for growth, BMI said it predicts the economy to recede by 0.5 percent in 2017 before picking up to 1.3 percent in 2018.

Source:http://www.arabianbusiness.com/politics-economics/380392-saudi-arabian-economy-to-return-to-growth-in-2018

UAE, Saudi ‘Well Positioned for Industrial Revolution 4’

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are well positioned for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, according to American global management consulting firm A T Kearney.

The UAE has the opportunity to take advantage of emerging technologies and changes in production, as it ranks in the top quartile of countries performing well in the areas of technology and innovation, human capital and trade, said the report.

Saudi Arabia has also ranked highly and has huge opportunity along with the plans underway to meet Saudi Vision 2030, according to the new Readiness for the Future of Production Report produced by World Economic Forum, in collaboration with global management consultants, A T Kearney.

The report, which measures how well-positioned 100 countries and economies, across all geographies and stages of development, are to benefit from the changing nature of production. It reveals that only 25 countries are strongly positioned to benefit, as production systems stand on the brink of exponential change.

The UAE, which aims to increase its manufacturing share of gross domestic product (GDP) to 25 per cent by 2025, along with Saudi Arabia, are flagged as ‘high-potential’ countries and are positioned to leapfrog in the emerging production paradigm. These countries have a relatively small current production base, but have the resources and potentially the right combination of other capabilities to capitalise on opportunities.

Johan Aurik, managing partner and chairman of A T Kearney, said: “In a changing production landscape, each country will need to differentiate itself, capitalise on competitive advantages and make wise trade-offs in forming its own unique strategy for the future of production.”

“Given the speed and scale of changes occurring in the environment, the new diagnostic and benchmarking tool can help raise awareness and sharpen a country’s response,” he said.

As the Fourth Industrial Revolution gathers momentum, the report highlights how decision-makers from the public and private sectors are confronted with a new set of uncertainties regarding the future of production.

Rapidly emerging technologies—such as the Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence, wearables, robotics and additive manufacturing—are spurring the development of new production techniques, business models, and value chains that will fundamentally transform global production.

Mauricio Zuazua, partner, A T Kearney, said: “This is just one aspect of a vastly shifting landscape. It is imperative that government and business leaders take a fresh look at how their countries and corporations will contribute to the world’s fast-changing value networks to capitalize on future production opportunities, mitigate risks and challenges, and be resilient and agile in responding to unknown future shocks.”

This report is a key contribution to the World Economic Forum’s initiative on Shaping the Future of Production. The initiative brings together global leaders and decision-makers in seeking to address how the transformation of production systems, from R&D to the consumer, can drive innovation, sustainability and employment, to benefit all people, it stated.

Source:http://www.manufacturingtrade.com/news-detail:9117ad87-516c-5b06-a8ff-5a6f219c0c9c.html

Iraq to offer 3 refineries for investment in Kuwait conference

Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) Iraq plans to offer three of its oil refineries to investors during an upcoming conference of Iraq donors, the government said Thursday.

Anadolu Agency quoted a statement from the state’s investment authority saying that the refineries include Faw, in the southern Basra province, with a production capacity of 300.000 barrels a day, besides another in Anbar (150.000 barrels per day) and Nasseriya, Dhi Qar province (150.000 barrels per day).

Iraq imports and estimated USD5 billion in petroleum products for local demand, most of which is used for electricity generation.

Iraq’s need for petroleum products intensified after Islamic State militants took over the Baiji refinery in Salahuddin province, which secured nearly a third of the country’s needs with a capacity of 170.000 barrels per day.

Kuwait will be hosting Iraq donors conference from 12th to 14th February. Nearly 70 participants are expected at the event which will hopefully collect USD100 billion dollars for the reconstruction of the country and repair of damage caused by the war against Islamic State militants.

The investment authority said last Tuesday that Iraq was planning to offer a total of 157 projects to investors during the conference.

Iraq’s crude oil exports for December stood at nearly 109.9 billion barrels, with revenues of nearly USD6.5 billion.

Source: https://www.iraqinews.com/business-iraqi-dinar/iraq-offer-3-refineries-investment-kuwait-conference/

Oil and the Iran Protests

scion Industries

It doesn’t take much these days to remind oil traders that Middle East geopolitical risk can raise oil prices. Unrest in Iranian cities is the latest case in point. News and video records of major protests in Iran pushed Brent prices to $67 a barrel before analysts started pointing out that the risk to oil supply from the protesters themselves was low. That analysis could be too sanguine. The protests in Iran underscore a rising risk across the Persian Gulf: disgruntled populations are willing to sabotage oil facilities to make themselves heard.

Iran has been the site of such attacks of late, especially in the oil rich Khuzestan province known for its Arab separatist movement. In a sign that Iran likely takes the potential for sabotage seriously, an Arab separatist leader who was known to advocate for attacks on oil facilities in Iran was gunned down in Europe recently.

More on:

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Late last year, Bahrain accused Iran of being behind a terrorist attack on a pipeline that brings oil from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain. Saudi Aramco has also boosted security at its offshore oil facilities on its maritime border with Iran. Those fields, including the Marjan oil field that is shared across the border with Iran, are slated for expansion by Aramco. Iran is also increasing production on its side of the field, called Foroozan. Khuzestan province is also home to fields that are important to Iran’s ability to increase its domestic oil production utilizing Chinese investment. Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of being involved in recent missile attacks from Yemen that targeted Riyadh airport and the royal palace.

The accuracy of the thesis that Iranian protests won’t spread to oil workers the way they did in late 1978 will depend in large measure on whether Iranian government repression of discontent can be successful in putting down insurgency, as it was in 2009. It is important to remember that the sequence of events that led to the fall of the Shah of Iran took months to unfold. Protests were unrelenting at the end of 1978 and oil workers were eventually motivated by the chaos to deny the military access to fuel to prevent them from killing even more Iranian citizens. As conflict escalated on the streets, oil workers walked off the job, eventually bringing Iranian oil exports to zero.

The Iranian government is well aware of this risk. In 2010, in the aftermath of internal instability in 2009, it increased the presence of the revolutionary guard in the oil sector to prevent a repeat of 1979. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also never seemed to embrace the notion—put forward by reformists—that Iran’s economy would benefit from integration with the global economy. Rather, Khamenei has advocated vociferously that Iran needs to stay the course on an economy of “resistance” where indigenous economic capacities are part of the battlefield and individuals sacrifice personal consumer needs in favor of the commanding heights of the state. That view seems to lend credence to commentary that Iran’s hardliners themselves started the protests initially to weaken reformers by highlighting the failure of the nuclear deal to bring about tangible economic benefits. If reports of protest slogans are correct, the population could be tiring of the hardliner view that it is a higher calling to remain cut off from the global economy to fund the security of Shiite compatriots via wars in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq. Rather, like citizens in many places around the world, especially countries with oil, some Iranians are asking why they should make such sacrifices for a government that lacks accountability and is excessively corrupt.

Oil markets will be watching carefully to see if the Donald J. Trump administration uses Iran’s repression of its own people as a reason to refuse to issue the waiver to keep the United States from violating the terms of the nuclear deal or if the U.S. president—once again—refuses to recertify Iran’s compliance with the deal, kicking the issue back to a reluctant Congress. Markets will be looking for any signs that U.S. action will make it more difficult for Iran to sell its oil or to raise new oil and gas investments in the Iranian industry.

But as tempting as that grandstanding could be, the United States should probably take no hasty actions on this one until it can give the Iranian people a chance to be fully heard.

If reports are accurate, Khamenei’s long standing concept that his fellow citizens should continue to sacrifice in a resistance economy to keep the upper hand in regional conflicts could be losing ground. The United States should do nothing to hinder that momentum.

Acting out in ways that reconfirm the long standing hardliner story line that the United States will always be an enemy to Iran would be a mistake at this time. Rather, the United States should take a breath and with uncharacteristic patience, do nothing regarding sanctions until it can see if the chips fall in a more favorable place.

Source: https://www.cfr.org/blog/oil-and-iran-protests

Asian Development Model Proposed by Iran Private Sector

Heat of compression rotary drum dryers

I ran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture has proposed an Asian model for economic development to weather the current storms facing the Iranian economy.

In remarks on Sunday, Gholamhossein Shafei described the economy as being “in no good shape” and said the country should create a strong entity whose power supersedes all government branches and which sets major policies to navigate the country’s economy.

“We need to follow in the footsteps of countries that faced the same crises and ultimately overcame them, and use their successful experience to solve our own problems,” Shafei said at the latest gathering of ICCIMA’s board of representatives.

Shafei stressed the need for a major decision-making body to enforce real reforms and take the helm of the country’s economy for the next five to 10 years.

In this context, the ICCIMA chief referred to Asian countries with notable economic achievements in recent decades, such as China, Malaysia and three of the four Asian tigers–Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea.

Shafei referred to the National Development and Reform Commission of China, the Council for Economic Planning and Development in Taiwan, the Economic Development Board in Singapore and Economic Planning Board in South Korea, which has devised three five-year plans for the country.

In the proposed model, he envisioned an entity comprising seasoned government experts, representatives from the Supreme Leader’s office, judiciary and parliamentary figures, distinguished academics in social and economic fields, private sector executives introduced by ICCIMA and labor union representatives.

He relegated the duty of drafting economic legislation and development plans to the proposed entity, instead of the government.

“The implementation of decisions made by such an entity,” he said, “would be incumbent upon all the ministries active in the sphere of economics.”

It is unclear if such a bold proposal would be granted a serious consideration in state circles, but the government and other decision-making bodies have routinely urged the private sector to come up with suggestions to solve the the country’s seemingly insurmountable obstacles.

Shafei, along with other business figures present in the meeting, sounded the alarm on rising inequality, poverty, unemployment and declining real wages.

Protests Revisited

Shafei’s comments come as the fallout from recent nationwide protests over price rises and economic mismanagement is still fresh in the minds of officials and the public.

Reflecting the mood, several ICCIMA officials took to the podium to voice concerns over legitimate public demands that need to be heard and addressed.

Shafei, however, noted that social and economic ills should not be a cause for despair and complacency.

“Acute economic troubles over time have caused the wounds to open and led to recent protests,” he said.

Quoting a speech by the Leader of Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei in which he called for extra vigilance in the face of steep challenges, Shafei said the current circumstances require “extraordinary measures” to tackle them.

Since the signing of the landmark nuclear deal with world powers in 2016, Iran received relief from sanctions that had battered the economy. However, ordinary Iranians have not benefited from this relief due to lingering US sanctions, which continue to discourage major international banks from dealing with Iran, its chronic structural problems and the heavy role of the state in the economy.

Also on Sunday, President Hassan Rouhani once again reacted to recent public protests and said “the people must be heard” and that some of their actions are legitimate acts of protest.

“Even in London and New York such protests could [turn violent] and some vandalism occurs, but we should not paint everybody with the same brush,” Rouhani was quoted as saying by IRNA.

Source:https://financialtribune.com/articles/economy-business-and-markets/79998/asian-development-model-proposed-by-iran-private-sector

United Arab Emirates: PMI reaches multi-year high in December

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The Emirates NDB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased from 57.0 in November to 57.7 in December. As a result, the index moved further above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the non-oil producing private sector, and marked the highest reading in 34 months.

December’s figure was underpinned by an acceleration in new order growth, with new export orders returning to expansion after November’s contraction. Anecdotal evidence suggested that fellow GCC countries were an important source of new foreign business in the month. Output also increased sharply, albeit at a slightly slower rate than in the prior month. As a result of strong economic activity, firms continued to take on staff, although employment and wage growth remained mild overall. On the price front, input prices fell in December, while output prices declined.

According to Khatija Haque, Head of MENA Research at Emirates NBD: “It is likely that the introduction of VAT in January has spurred activity and purchasing in Q4 2017, which is in line with our expectations. Nevertheless, employment and wage growth has been relatively muted, not just in December but for 2017 as a whole”.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect GDP to expand 2.9% in 2018 and 3.1% in 2019. Panelists expect fixed investment to increase 3.8% in 2018 and 4.3% in 2019.

Economic Snapshot for the Middle East & North Africa

Industrial gear boxes and belts supplier in Middle East

Solid economic performance remains threatened by heightened political uncertainty
Economic fundamentals remain strong in the Middle East and North Africa on the back of higher oil prices, strong global growth and accommodative financial conditions. However, widespread security threats and political unrest pose a sustained risk to the region’s economic performance, and spillovers from OPEC’s oil-cut deal continue to weigh on oil-producing countries. The MENA region’s economies rose an aggregated 1.7% annually in Q3, down from the 2.1% increase in Q2. Despite the deceleration, an analysis of individual countries paints a brighter picture of the regional economy.

Economic growth accelerated in Egypt in the July–September period as the IMF-driven reforms implemented in late 2016 started to gain traction. As a result, the economy expanded at the fastest pace in nearly three years in that period. In Tunisia, economic activity strengthened in Q3, partially reflecting an improvement in tourist arrivals. Although growth moderated in Morocco in Q3, the economy continued its recovery from 2016’s lackluster performance in the agricultural sector. Mining activities are also shoring up overall growth in the country, along with rising foreign investment. Annual growth moderated in Israel in Q3 mostly due to a base effect from the previous year. That said, fundamentals remain strong due to a loose monetary policy and robust external demand.

Qatar defied the economic blockade imposed by Saudi Arabia and its allies in June, and GDP growth accelerated in Q3 on strong government support. Economic growth accelerated in Bahrain in Q3 led by strong infrastructure spending and a robust financial sector, offsetting poor crude output due to Bahrain’s compliance with the OEPC deal. Saudi Arabia contracted for the third consecutive quarter in Q3. That said, the economy declined at a slower pace due to resilient dynamics in the non-oil sector. While data is still outstanding for Iran, GDP growth likely decelerated in the July–September period due to a large base effect from the previous year, when the economy was expanding at a double-digit pace.

On 28 December, protests erupted in Mashhad, Iran’s second-largest city, and quickly spread across the country. Demonstrators expressed their grievances against the high price of basic goods and Iran’s economic, military and political involvement in the region, which is putting pressure on the national budget. The country’s high unemployment rate, in particular among women and youth people, and the fact that the benefits from the lifting of the economic sanctions have not yet had an impact on the population also fueled unrest. Protests, however, eased in early January following the harsh crackdown against demonstrators by government security forces. This episode represents the most severe challenge to the Iranian political system since the Green movement in 2009, when people protested alleged fraud in the presidential election, and highlights an underlying political tension that could flare up again in the future.

Several countries in the region, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, released their 2018 budgets in the last few weeks, which include a more expansionary approach compared to last year’s plans. While increased spending should boost economic activity this year, a looser fiscal stance in many countries in the region has the potential to derail some of the fiscal consolidation processes. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have announced the implementation of a value-added tax (VAT) as of 1 January, which is expected to broaden the tax collection base and increase revenue. Four other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar—have pledged to do the same. Bahrain will introduce the new tax by mid-2018 and Qatar unveiled plans to launch VAT in Q2 of this year. Kuwait and Oman stated they will implement the VAT in 2019.

See the Full FocusEconomics Middle East & North Africa Report

Political instability threatens 2018 economic growth prospects
Higher oil prices will boost economic growth among oil-producing economies this year, which will have a positive impact on regional growth in MENA for 2018. Moreover, countries in North Africa will benefit from improved agricultural output and a mild recovery in tourism. Geopolitical risks remain high, however, hampering the possibility of a sharp and sustained economic recovery. The MENA region is expected to expand 2.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. Our panel projects regional growth of 3.3% in 2019.

This month’s stable economic outlook for MENA in 2018 reflects unchanged growth prospects for Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Israel, Kuwait and Oman. Panelists upgraded their view of the Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates economies, while Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Qatar, Tunisia and Yemen all experienced a downgrade in their growth prospects.

Egypt is expected to be the fastest-growing economy in 2018, followed closely by Iran. At the other end of the spectrum, Saudi Arabia, which is facing the lion’s share of OPEC’s oil-cut reduction, and Lebanon, engulfed by sustained political instability, are expected to be the region’s worst performers.

SAUDI ARABIA | OPEC’s oil-cap deal dents economic activity in Q3
Reduced oil output in compliance with OPEC’s oil-cut deal, low oil prices and reduced government support led the Saudi economy to contract in 2017 for the first time since the height of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009. According to preliminary figures, GDP contracted 0.7% in 2017, contrasting the 1.7% rise in 2016. The oil and construction sectors represented the bulk of the deterioration. To boost economic growth and solidify the Saudi Vision 2030 plan, which seeks to diversify the economy away from oil, the government presented the 2018 budget on 19 December. It includes the newly introduced value-added tax and prioritizes capital expenditure. Although the plan foresees a sizeable reduction in the fiscal deficit, the fiscal gap will remain relatively large and will be partially financed by debt issuance and government reserves. Moreover, Saudi authorities expect that the budget will balance in 2023, four years later than in the original plan.

The economy is expected to return to growth this year due to higher oil prices, renewed fiscal stimulus and strong global demand. However, higher inflation due to the introduction of VAT, capped oil production and mounting geopolitical risks threaten the recovery. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect growth of 1.6% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2019, growth is seen picking up pace to 2.3%.

UAE | Non-oil economy ended 2017 on a strong footing
The economy remains in strong shape heading into the new year. The non-oil PMI reached a near three-year high in December thanks to healthy expansions in output and new orders. Coupled with figures from previous months, this bodes well for economic growth in Q4, as consumers and firms brought forward planned consumption before the introduction of a 5% VAT on 1 January. The new tax is an important step towards broadening the tax base and strengthening a fiscal position which is already among the most solid in the region. On the downside, employment and wage growth remain subdued despite robust domestic activity, which could weigh on private consumption heading into 2018. In early December, Dubai presented its 2018 budget, which contained a significant ramp-up in infrastructure spending as part of the preparations for the 2020 World Expo. The more expansionary fiscal stance was similar to that of the UAE’s federal budget approved in November.

Growth should pick up significantly this year, as the oil sector slowly recovers and the non-oil sector benefits from preparations for the Dubai 2020 World Expo, which should boost fixed investment. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to rise 3.0% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2019.

EGYPT | Economy continues slow, but steady, recovery
The economy continues to gather strength heading into the new calendar year, although it remains fragile, as evidenced by December’s PMI which sank back into pessimistic territory. Other indicators are more positive: In the July–September period growth strengthened, and the unemployment rate declined to a multi-year low. In addition, international reserves were significantly bolstered in 2017 thanks to renewed investor confidence, while the trade deficit narrowed sharply. On 20 December, the IMF’s Executive Board completed the second review under the Extended Fund Facility, unlocking USD 2 billion of additional funding. This will be complemented by USD 1.2 billion recently committed by the World Bank to help support the economy and boost job creation. While praising reform progress, the IMF urged authorities to continue paring back energy subsidies and take steps to increase tax revenues. The fiscal and external positions should be strengthened by the giant Zohr gas field that came onstream in December, moving Egypt closer to energy self-sufficiency.

Growth should remain solid going forward. New investment and industrial licensing laws are likely to boost investment, while the external sector will benefit from the weaker pound. However, the elevated debt burden could become a pressing concern if reform momentum slows, and security worries continue to cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to expand 4.4% in FY 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.8% in FY 2019.

ISRAEL | Growth slows in 2017 on weaker investment dynamics
Preliminary data released on 31 December showed full-year GDP growth slowing in 2017 from a year earlier, despite posting a sharp acceleration in Q3—the most recent period for which quarterly data is available. According to the estimate, domestic demand experienced a broad-based slowdown in 2017, despite record-low interest rates throughout the year and strong leading data as it drew to a close: Unemployment was low through November, while survey data for consumer and business confidence hovered near record highs in November and December. Growth in exports of goods and services was broadly stable in 2017, showing resilience despite the appreciation of the shekel. Meanwhile, on 8 January, the Ministry of Finance published a USD 139 billion budget draft for 2019, a USD 5.8 billion increase from the already approved 2018 budget, with a deficit target of 2.9%.

Accommodative fiscal policy and ultra-loose monetary policy will underpin economic growth this year. A tight labor market and resilient asset values are expected to drive household spending, while the government’s medium-term infrastructure plans are expected to boost fixed investment. An improving global economy should sustain robust growth in exports. Flare-ups in Israeli-Palestinian tensions could, however, threaten the recovery of the tourism sector. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth to reach 3.4% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, our panel expects GDP growth of 3.2%.

INFLATION | Regional inflation decelerates in November as price pressures moderate in Egypt
According to a regional aggregate produced by FocusEconomics, inflation decelerated in November to 4.1%, down from October’s six-month high of 4.3%. The moderation mostly reflected softer inflationary pressures in Egypt amid an improved economic landscape and a favorable base effect. That said, inflation in Egypt remained above 25% for the eleventh consecutive month. Inflation also declined in Algeria, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, while it increased in most of the remaining economies. In November, Saudi Arabia recorded the first annual increase in consumer prices since the end of 2016.

Inflationary pressures will resurface this year on the back of higher commodity prices and a weaker U.S. dollar. Moreover, the implementation of a VAT in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on 1 January will add upward pressure on regional inflation this year. FocusEconomics panelists forecast regional inflation to average 5.1%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2019, inflation is expected to moderate to 4.7%.

Source:https://www.focus-economics.com/regions/middle-east-and-north-africa