Expats might not flee the Gulf in the numbers predicted earlier as economies fare better than expected during the pandemic, according to Oxford Economics.
“The impact on jobs of the declines in non-oil gross domestic product has been smaller than anticipated,” Scott Livermore, chief economist for the region, wrote in a report Wednesday. “Travel restrictions and the use of furlough or unpaid leave have weakened the link between expats losing their jobs and returning to their home country.”
According to the report, expats are still expected to leave in significant numbers across the six nations comprising the Gulf Cooperation Council – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman – which are all heavily dependent on foreign workers in sectors as diverse as construction and finance.
As economies slowed and then contracted during the global health emergency, many expats whose residency visas were linked to jobs that had disappeared were forced to head home.
Fuelling the exodus, Kuwait passed legislation trimming its foreign workforce as it sought to assuage local anger over job losses. As a result, the report said both Kuwait and Oman “may have decisively turned their backs on expats”.
On the flip side of that, the drop in Saudi expat jobs has been lower than estimated, at 3.8 percent, excluding domestic workers. And the report revealed foreigners are likely to return to Bahrain and Saudi, although it will probably take a couple of years for numbers to reach pre-pandemic levels.
The report added that, in the UAE, where there have been significant cuts to the workforce announced across key sectors, the expat population will likely decline in line with previous estimates (around ten percent).
Source:https://www.arabianbusiness.com/politics-economics/455720-fears-allayed-over-expat-exodus-from-gulf-countries