Oil Updates — crude prices climb as risk appetite grows

Oil prices edged up on Monday, recouping some of the losses suffered at the end of last week, as investors focused on a tight global supply outlook while a last-minute deal that avoided a US government shutdown restored risk appetite.

Brent December crude futures rose 8 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $92.28 a barrel by 9:00 a.m. Saudi time.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 10 cents, or 0.11 percent, to $90.89 a barrel.

Both benchmarks rallied nearly 30 percent in the third quarter on forecasts of a wide crude supply deficit in the fourth quarter after Saudi Arabia and Russia extended additional supply cuts to the end of the year.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other allies, or OPEC+, is unlikely to tweak its current oil output policy when the panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meets on Wednesday, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters, as tighter supplies and rising demand drive an oil price rally.

“Oil prices started the week on a strong note amid supply concerns with no policy change by OPEC+ expected, while the avoidance of a US government’s shutdown over the weekend gave some relief,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.

“Still, whether or not the market will rise further will depend on future demand trends,” he said.

While OPEC+ is not expected to change its output policy given the recent strength in the market, Saudi Arabia could start to ease its additional voluntary supply cut of 1 million barrels per day, said ING analysts in a note on Monday.

Official data on Saturday showed that China’s factory activity expanded for the first time in six months in September, adding to a run of indicators suggesting the world’s second-largest economy has begun to stabilize.

However, a private-sector survey on Sunday was less encouraging, showing the country’s factory activity expanded slower in September.

Indeed, a durable recovery in China’s economy is delayed by a property slump, falling exports and high youth unemployment, raising fears of weaker fuel demand.

Elsewhere, a last-minute decision by Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy to turn to Democrats to pass a short-term funding bill pushed the risk of the shutdown to mid-November, meaning the US federal government’s more than 4 million workers can count on continued paychecks for now.

Amplifying supply fears, the US oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by seven to 623 in the week to Sept. 29, the lowest since February 2022, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.

Brent is forecast to average $89.85 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $86.45 in 2024, according to a survey of 42 economists compiled by Reuters on Friday.

Source:https://www.arabnews.com/node/2384026

UAE’s Emirates inks deal with Shell Aviation to procure SAF for Dubai hub

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As part of its ongoing commitment to sustainability, the UAE’s flagship carrier, Emirates, has entered into an agreement with Shell Aviation to procure over 300,000 gallons of blended sustainable aviation fuel for use at its international hub in Dubai.

According to a press statement, the initial SAF delivery under this partnership is expected to commence by the end of this year, marking the first instance of Dubai International Airport using biofuel.

Emirates has emphasized that this agreement underscores its environmental strategy, built upon three core pillars: reducing emissions, responsible consumption, and preserving wildlife and habitats.

Emirates President Tim Clarke said: “We hope that this collaboration develops further to provide an ongoing future supply of SAF in our hub, as there are currently no production facilities for SAF in the UAE.”

He added: “We look forward to continue collaborating with like-minded organizations and government entities to look at viable solutions that introduce more SAF, a fuel that is currently extremely limited in supply, into the aviation fuel supply chain and support Emirates’ efforts to reduce emissions across our operations.”

Shell Corporate Travel Vice President Chu Yong-Yi described this agreement as a significant milestone in the aviation industry’s journey toward achieving zero emissions.

“This agreement marks a step forward for the aviation industry in the UAE. Enabling SAF to be supplied at DXB for the first time is an important milestone and a perfect example of how the different parts of the aviation value chain have a role to play in unlocking progress on SAF,” said Yong-Yi.

He added: “We hope that this can act as a springboard for more action on SAF across the aviation industry in the UAE and region, delivering another step forward for our net zero emissions journey.”

In an earlier announcement in May, Emirates committed a $200 million fund to research and develop projects to mitigate the impact of fossil fuels in the commercial aviation sector.

The airline specified that this designated fund would be disbursed over three years, with Emirates actively seeking partnerships with organizations specializing in fuel and energy technologies.

Source:https://www.arabnews.com/node/2384046

OPEC optimistic on demand, calls for more oil and gas investment

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is optimistic on demand and sees under-investment as a risk to energy security, Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais said on Monday at an energy industry event in Abu Dhabi.

He stressed the importance of continued investment in the oil and gas industry and said he sees calls to stop investing in oil as counterproductive.

“We still see oil demand as quite resilient this year, as it was last year,” Al-Ghais said, noting the group’s forecast was for year-on-year demand growth of more than 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd).

He added that investment in the oil and gas sector was important for energy security.

“We are…running quite low on spare capacity; we have said this repeatedly and this requires a concerted effort by all of the stakeholders to see the importance of investing in this industry,” he said.

The UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei echoed the call and said investment by both international and national oil companies was needed.

“And these investments need the financial world to be willing to finance oil and gas,” Al-Mazrouei said.

He later told reporters that his country is on track to expand its oil production capacity to 5 million bpd by 2027 from 4.2 million bpd currently.

Source:https://www.arabnews.com/node/2384066

Abu Dhabi’s non-oil economy surges 12.3% in Q2 to $42bn

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Abu Dhabi’s non-oil economy grew by 12.3 percent in the second quarter of 2023, accompanied by a 3.5 percent increase in its overall gross domestic product, reported the Statistics Centre — Abu Dhabi.

The emirate’s real non-oil GDP soared to 154 billion dirhams ($42 billion), marking its highest since 2014. This increase represents a record for the first quarter of the current year, surpassing 146 billion dirhams.

SCAD’s statistical estimates revealed growth in the construction sector, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1 percent, reaching 25.3 billion dirhams.

The financial sector also grew 29.7 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, reaching 18.3 billion dirhams.

The manufacturing sector also advanced 7 percent in the second quarter to 25 billion dirhams compared to the year-ago period.

The real estate sector climbed to 9.8 billion dirhams in the second quarter from 9.3 billion dirhams in this year’s first quarter.

Furthermore, wholesale and retail trade activities reached their highest quarterly value since 2014, amounting to 16.7 billion dirhams.

These activities contributed 5.8 percent to the GDP in the second quarter of 2023.

Ahmed Jasim Al-Zaabi, chairman of the Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development, emphasized: “The continued strong performance of Abu Dhabi’s economy despite mounting challenges in the global economic landscape reaffirms the success of the emirate’s diversification strategy and adaptability to market shifts.”

Last month, S&P Global Ratings anticipated that the UAE would achieve 3 percent economic growth in 2023, primarily driven by the non-oil sector.

The analysis from the rating agency forecasts a further expansion rate of 4 percent next year.

Trevor Cullinan, a sovereign ratings analyst at the agency, pointed to the impressive expansion of the UAE’s non-oil sector, citing significant strides in services and industrial domains, reported the Emirates News Agency.

Identifying key sectors that are steering the UAE’s economic growth, Cullinan mentioned oil and gas, wholesale trade and industry, real estate, construction and financial services.

The rating agency also reported that the employment growth in the UAE last month was at its highest since October 2016, even as the Purchasing Managers’ Index hit 56.6, up from 56.1 in September.

Source:https://www.arabnews.com/node/2384076

Saudi economy to grow by 3.9% in 2024 as inflation stabilizes: OECD

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Affirming Saudi Arabia’s strong growth prospects in the near term, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development revealed that the Kingdom’s gross domestic product is expected to rise by 3.9 percent in 2024.

The OECD revealed that Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate is expected to average 2.1 in 2024, a sign that the Kingdom is successfully combating price pressures.

Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund echoed similar views and noted that Saudi Arabia has succeeded in maintaining its average consumer price index despite inflationary pressures faced by several countries across the globe.

The report noted that Saudi Arabia will be among the few countries with economic growth above 3 percent in 2024.

The OECD projected that the US and the UK could grow by 0.8 percent and 1.3 percent in 2024.

On the other hand, the Australian economy could witness an economic growth of 1.3 percent and Brazil 1.7 percent.

The OECD projected Japan’s economic growth at 1.8 percent in 2023 and 1 percent in 2024.

China and India are some of the countries that are expected to surpass Saudi economic growth, expanding by 4.6 percent and 6 percent, respectively.

The report added that the Saudi economy will grow by 1.9 percent in 2023 while the inflation rate will remain stable at 2.5 percent.

In its report, the OECD revealed that the world economy is expected to grow by 3 percent and 2.7 percent in 2023 and 2024, respectively, while the inflation rate is expected to moderate.

“Inflation is projected to moderate gradually over 2023 and 2024 but to remain above central bank objectives in most economies,” the OECD said in its report.

“Headline inflation is declining, but core inflation remains persistent in many economies, held up by cost pressures and high margins in some sectors,” the report added.

The European Central Bank had raised a key interest rate to a record high last week but hinted this might be its last hike. On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve is expected to pause its tightening campaign on Wednesday.

Source:https://arab.news/c9f38

Saudi Arabia revises budget estimates for 2023 on ‘expansionary spending’ policies

Lowering its growth forecast for 2023, Saudi Arabia expects to post a budget deficit this year rather than an earlier projected surplus, mainly due to “expansionary” spending policies and “conservative revenue estimates.”

Saudi Arabia will continue its fiscal and structural reforms as the Kingdom is steadily embarking on its economic diversification journey in line with the goals outlined in Vision 2030, said Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan.

He said that continuous implementation of the ambitious plan is necessary for the Kingdom to catalyze its economic growth and maintain fiscal sustainability.

A preliminary budget statement issued on Saturday showed that the largest Arab economy expects real gross domestic product to grow by 0.03 percent this year compared with a previous forecast for growth of 3.1 percent.

The document also projected the government would post a budget deficit of 1.9 percent of the gross domestic project in 2024, 1.6 percent of GDP in 2025, and 2.3 percent of GDP in 2026. It said “limited budget deficits” would continue in the medium term.

Meanwhile, total expenditure is seen rising to SR1.262 billion in 2023, from an earlier estimate of SR1.114 billion, before slowing down marginally to SR1.251 billion in 2024.

However, the Kingdom’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to remain below 27 percent due to a gradual decrease in the deficit over the coming years, Mazen Al-Sudairi, head of research at Al Rajhi Capital told Arab News.

“The (budget) deficit is expected to decrease gradually over the coming years, keeping the debt-to-GDP ratio below 27 percent, well below the government’s target of 30 percent,” the analyst said.

Borrowing plan

Al-Sudairi said most of the deficit would be funded through borrowing, demonstrating prudent fiscal management.

According to the ministry, the government is now expecting an SR82 billion ($21.8 billion) deficit for 2023 instead of an SR16 billion surplus projected earlier.

For 2024, the government expects total revenues at SR1.172 trillion and total spending of SR1.251 trillion.

Commenting on the budget statement, Al-Jadaan said the government program will help Saudi Arabia develop promising economic sectors, enhance investment attractions, stimulate industrial growth, raise the percentage of local content, and promote non-oil exports.

The ministry currently expects budget deficits to last through 2026, the statement said.

Saudi Arabia is working to prepare an annual borrowing plan in accordance with a medium-term debt strategy and “access global debt markets to enhance the Kingdom’s position in international markets,” the Finance Ministry said.

Non-oil GDP

The budget statement touted growth in non-oil sectors, whose revenue jumped by 11 percent in the first half of the year.

Commenting on the non-oil sector, Al-Sudairi stressed the importance of focusing on the non-oil GDP, which is expected to grow by 5.9 percent in 2023 and over 4 percent in the following year.

“This growth above 4 percent is very healthy and will help diversify the non-oil economy, creating new sectors and segments inside the economy.”

The expert also highlighted the significance of cities and service-based industries in the Saudi economy.

He stated: “The Vision 2030 concentrates on cities. With the global economy becoming more service-based, cities become much more important as service industries thrive.”

Source:https://arab.news/bd6vz

Iraqi central bank chief meets with Jordanian PM, counterpart

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Ali Mohsen Al-Alaq, governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, met with Jordan’s Prime Minister Bishr Khasawneh on Sunday, Jordan News Agency reported.

Khasawneh stressed his commitment to expanding collaboration, notably in the economic and banking sectors.

Speaking about his visit to Baghdad in July, Khasawneh said the two countries had agreed to strengthen cooperation in several fields, whether through bilateral efforts or as part of the tripartite cooperation mechanism between Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt.

Earlier, Al-Alaq also met with his Jordanian counterpart Adel Sharkas to discuss ways to boost banking and financial ties.

The two addressed banking issues of mutual interest, developments in central bank work, and trends in global monetary policies. They also examined inflationary pressures that have led many central banks around the world to maintain tight monetary policies.

Sharkas and Al-Alaq signed an agreement that provides for cooperation and knowledge exchange in electronic payment systems and services, financial technology, cybersecurity, staff training, and combating money laundering and terrorist financing.

Sharkas emphasized the significance of the agreement at a time when economic relations between the two countries are advancing steadily.

He noted that Jordanian banks are looking to create a foothold in the Iraqi market, pointing to four Jordanian branches that have secured licenses to operate in Iraq, with two branches already active.

Al-Alaq praised the historical Jordanian-Iraqi ties, emphasizing the CBI’s desire to benefit from Jordanian experience in digitalization, financial innovations, and payment systems.

Source:https://www.arabnews.com/node/2383731

Egypt celebrates success of house, road-building programs

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Egypt has spent millions of dollars on new urban communities over the past nine years, its housing minister said on Sunday.

Speaking at the “Story of a Homeland” conference in the New Administrative Capital, Housing and Urban Communities Minister Assem El-Gazzar said: “In the past nine years we have built 1.5 million housing units.

“We have worked to eliminate 357 unsafe areas by building more than 300,000 housing units at a construction cost exceeding 300 billion (Egyptian) pounds.”

El-Gazzar said 24 new cities that could accommodate 32 million people had been developed in the period.

The country’s Decent Life Initiative had been a major contributor to the increased urbanization, which in turn had had a significant impact on economic development, he added.

The three-day conference was attended by President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and representatives from across Egyptian society.

It comprised several discussion sessions, at which the participants highlighted the government’s achievements and addressed the challenges that lie ahead.

The conference also provided a platform for political leaders to respond to citizens’ queries about political, social and economic issues.

Transport Minister Kamel Al-Wazir said that under the Decent Life Initiative 7,000 km of new roads had been built over the past nine years.

The national road network now spanned 30,000 km and served agricultural and industrial areas across the country, he said.

He added that on completion of the development plan, Egypt’s ports would have capacity for 400 million tons of goods and 40 million containers, and be able to handle 30,000 giant ships a year.

El-Sisi thanked the ministers for their efforts and said the success of the development program was testimony to their efforts and the will of the state to serve the people.

Source:https://www.arabnews.com/node/2383741

Lebanon’s industry carries falling national economy on its shoulders

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The industrial sector in Lebanon, despite the falling national economy, continues to solider on in order to revive the market and create new business opportunities especially with the increasing demands for Lebanese products.

The sector was one of the few offering hard foreign currency in Lebanon, which is still suffering from the decrease in the value of the national currency in times when the US Dollar was in high demand.

Speaking to KUNA on the issue, Lebanon’s Industry Minister George Boujikian stressed that the steadfastness of the industrial sector was one of the main factors in helping the national economy to “stay afloat”.

The sector is witnessing increasing investments, issuing of permits, and market expansion, which led to the exporting of products to some 110 countries worldwide, added the minister.

The Lebanese industry includes 21 sectors with the manufacturing of food products and furniture leading the way, he revealed.

Boujikian stressed the importance of keeping Lebanese products up to standards to succeed both locally and internationally.

On the Ministry’s plans, the minister indicated that there was a focus on developing three sectors namely the use of Artificial Intelligence, recycling, and cinema production.

Similarly, Vice President of the Association of Lebanese Industrialists Ziad Bekdache affirmed that the era of the Lebanese industrial sector had arrived; revealing that numbers currently exceeded those in 2019 prior to the Lebanese economic crisis.

Locally produced products now were rivaling those products abroad, he claimed, pointing out that factories had increased by 20 to 25 percent with clothing and an assortment of other products exported.

Bekdache said that the prices of locally made products and export ones varied between 30 to 60 percent, noting that due to the high quality of Lebanese products, local consumption had jumped by 60 percent.

The Lebanese Industry exported $4 billion worth of products and produced around $10 million worth of commodities for the local market.

Providing further input, Dr. Marwan Barakat, assistant general manager at Bank Audi, said that the decrease in value for the national currency contributed to the lowering of manufacturing costs especially for industrial and agricultural exports.

Increasing the customs dollar at a rate of Lebanese Pound 15,000 per US dollar had protected the Lebanese industry and encouraged competitiveness against foreign products, he said. — KUNA

Source:https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/629422/World/Mena/Officials-Lebanons-industry-carries-falling-national-economy-on-its-shoulders

UAE banks’ savings deposits at Dhs268.6bn for June 2023

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Banks in the UAE held savings deposits to the tune of Dhs268.6bn by the end of June 2023, according to the latest statistics released by the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE). This does not include interbank deposits, as per state news agency WAM.

The central bank’s statistics showed these deposits increased by 5.8 per cent on a monthly basis or Dhs14.8bn.

Savings in UAE Dirhams
The local currency, the UAE Dirham, accounted for the largest share of savings deposits, with about 81.6 percent, or Dhs219.17bn. The share of foreign currencies was 18.4 per cent, with a value of Dhs49.44bn.

Savings deposits in banks have seen remarkable growth over the past few years.

In 2018, these deposits stood at Dhs152bn. This increased to Dhs172.2bn in 2019, Dhs215.2bn in 2020, Dhs241.8bn in 2021, and Dhs245.8bn in 2022.

CBUAE’s deposits

Earlier this month the CBUAE reported its budget for the first half of the year. The central bank’s public budget surged by 32.15 per cent, equivalent to Dhs158bn, in contrast to some Dhs91.4bn in June 2022.

This momentum extended into the current year with a 17.5 per cent rise since the start of the year, compared to some Dhs552.5bn at the end of December 2022, an increment of Dhs97bn during the year’s first half.

The budget’s allocation delineated on the assets side, which saw Dhs257.2bn apportioned to cash and bank balances for June. Additionally, investments held until maturity were earmarked at Dhs211.32bn, while deposits accounted for Dhs135.34bn.

Loans and advances received an allocation of Dhs4.18bn, and other assets were assigned Dhs41.38bn.

Source:https://gulfbusiness.com/uae-banks-savings-deposits-dhs268-6bn-june-2023/