Iran offers discount oil to Asia

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TEHRAN: Iran is selling oil and gas at a discount to Asian customers as it prepares for the return of US sanctions, state news agency IRNA reported on Monday.

The “informed source” in Iran’s oil ministry did not give details of the discount but sought to downplay the move as common industry practice.
“Discount is part of the nature of the global markets being offered by all oil exporters,” the source told IRNA.

Bloomberg reported on Friday that the state-run National Iranian Oil Company was reducing official prices for September sales to Asia to their lowest level in 14 years, compared with Saudi crude.

The United States will seek to block Iran’s international oil sales from November 5, when the second phase of sanctions are reimposed as part of Washington’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal.

Several key buyers, including China and India, who account for roughly half of Iran’s sales, have said they are not willing to make significant cuts to their energy purchases from Iran.

But analysts predict Iran could still see its oil sales drop by around 700,000 barrels per day from their current level of around 2.3 million.
Much will depend on the European Union, which has vowed to resist US sanctions on Iran, but whose companies and financial institutions are more vulnerable to US financial pressure than their Asian counterparts.

French energy giant Total has already said it is pulling out of its multi-billion-dollar investment project in the South Pars oil field in southern Iran as a result of the renewed sanctions.

Source:http://www.arabnews.com/node/1355571/business-economy

Aramco, Total said to eye Saudi fuel stations such as Tas’helat

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Saudi Arabian Oil Co. and Total are weighing jointly buying businesses such as Tas’helat Marketing Co. to gain access to networks of retail fuel stations in the Gulf kingdom, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The state-owned company, known as Aramco, and the French oil giant are also looking at a range of options from consolidating some service stations to potentially starting the business from scratch, the people said, asking not to be identified as the matter is private.

French lender Credit Agricole SA and local investment bank Saudi Fransi Capital are advising the firms on their plans, which are still in the early stages, they said.

No final decisions have been taken and the group may decide against acquiring Tas’helat, which operates fuel stations under the Sahel brand, or any other business, they said. Representatives for Total and Credit Agricole declined to comment. Spokesmen for Aramco and Saudi Fransi didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Aramco and Total this month entered into a preliminary accord to study the joint purchase of a retail service station network in Saudi Arabia, and another worth about $9 billion for the potential expansion of a refinery and petrochemicals complex in Jubail, according to a statement April 10.

A division of Aramco, known as Saudi Aramco Retail Co., may enter into a joint venture with the French company to operate the business following a takeover, one of the people said.

Aramco, which is planning what could be the world’s largest initial public offering, is scouting for acquisitions as it seeks to become an integrated energy company with operations spanning the full spectrum of activities in the industry.

The company asked banks to pitch for roles to help identify natural gas assets globally, people familiar with the matter said this month.

Other large energy majors are looking to divest distribution assets and focus more on core exploration activities. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., another Middle East state-owned explorer, raised 3.1 billion dirhams ($844 million) from the sale of a stake in its fuel retail unit this year.

Source:http://www.arabianbusiness.com/retail/395040-aramco-total-said-to-eye-saudi-fuel-stations-such-as-tashelat

Kuwait’s Jazeera Airways sees Q1 loss despite 42% revenue jump

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Kuwait-based Jazeera Airways on Wednesday announced double digit growth in both revenue and flown passengers in the first quarter of 2018.

The airline recorded an operating revenue of KD14.3 million, up 42.7 percent from Q1 2017, and a net loss of KD0.3 million, an improvement of KD0.636 million from Q1 2017.

Passenger numbers in the first three months of 2018 totalled 403,863, up 43.1 percent from the year-earlier period.

Load factor on flights reached 75.8 percent, up 5.4 percent from Q1 2017, the airline added in a statement.

Jazeera Airways chairman Marwan Boodai said: “Despite the first quarter being a low travel season historically, we saw a 43.1 percent increase in flown passengers this year, a 42.7 percent growth in topline earnings, and significant improvement in our bottom line earnings.

“Looking head, the rest of the year is looking incredibly exciting for our business with our very own dedicated terminal coming on-line in mid-May, in addition to new routes, and new additions to the fleet.”

Source:http://www.arabianbusiness.com/transport/395095-kuwaits-jazeera-airways-sees-q1-loss-despite-42-revenue-jump

MB&F reveals aquatic version of Horological Machine No.7

Maximilian Busser and Friends (MB&F) has launched its new aquatic watch Horological Machine No.7 ‘Aquapod’ in three limited edition designs.

Inspired by jellyfish, which generate power from food caught in their tentacles, the Aquapod produces power from its tentacle-like automatic winding rotor, boasting a central ‘flying’ tourbillon similar to the hood of the water creature.

MB&F reveals aquatic version of Horological Machine No.7
The limited edition Aquapod features elements inspired by jellyfish

MB&F reveals aquatic version of Horological Machine No.7
Maximilian Busser and Friends (MB&F) has launched its new aquatic watch Horological Machine No.7 ‘Aquapod’ in three limited edition designs.

Inspired by jellyfish, which generate power from food caught in their tentacles, the Aquapod produces power from its tentacle-like automatic winding rotor, boasting a central ‘flying’ tourbillon similar to the hood of the water creature.

The indications radiate from the centre like “ripples in a pond,” according to the brand. The watch also features outward symmetric rings to display hours and minutes, based on the symmetric ring of brain neurons of jellyfish.

The winding rotor’s 3D ‘tentacles’ are crafted from a solid block of titanium, with platinum mass for efficient winding placed underneath them.

Unlike diving watches, the Aquapod’s unidirectional rotating bezel is not attached to the case, but floats alone.

As for its 72-hour power reserve engine, it was developed in-house by MB&F.

Moreover, as jellyfish glow in the dark, so does the Aquapod on its hour and minute numerals, flying tourbillon and tentacle-like winding rotor.

The timepiece is available in three designs including titanium with blue ceramic bezel limited to 33 pieces, red gold with black ceramic bezel limited to 66 pieces and titanium with green sapphire crystal bezel limited to 50 pieces.

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/style/395163-mbf-launches-horological-machine-no7-aquapod

LOOK-AHEAD 2018: Bright outlook for UAE economy

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A partial recovery in oil prices coupled with an ongoing all-out diversification drive and the landmark tax reform, will help the UAE economy to gain increased momentum in 2018 to register 3.3 per cent growth.

After an expected slowdown to 1.7 per cent in 2017, such a vibrant pace of growth predicted for 2018 signifies a virtual turnaround for the economy with a two-fold growth, driven by a rebound in gross domestic product by Dubai and Abu Dhabi, analysts and economists said.

While the ongoing fast-track diversification aimed at further reducing reliance on crude oil revenues will better place the UAE to entrench itself from further volatility in oil fortunes, a five per cent value added tax will help boost state revenues by Dh12 billion per annum, adding about 1.5 to two per cent to GDP.

VAT, which represents a major shift in tax policy, will impact all segments of the economy, leading to a fundamental change in the way businesses operate across around the region.

James Mathew, group CEO at Crowe Horwath (UAE and Oman), said VAT would bring in transparency, which will help the financial sector to differentiate between genuine businesses and suitcase operators. “Obtaining credit facility from banks will become easier for small and medium enterprises in the UAE after the implementation of VAT as companies will have to maintain their books from next year. The genuine SMEs will be able to get more finance because their turnover will not be questioned by the lenders as their records will be clean.”

Mathew said the UAE has been known for its tax-free status and a move towards introducing tax may need a significant overhaul of how the business operates in the region especially for the unorganised SME sector.

“SMEs are going to face challenges implementing the new tax laws as compared to larger organisations which are normally operated with proper operating policies and structures. SMEs are the backbone of the Dubai economy, representing 95 per cent of all establishments in the emirate. Almost half of SMEs in the UAE are in Dubai [45 per cent], while 32 per cent are in Abu Dhabi and 16 per cent in Sharjah. The other emirates account for seven per cent.”

Sultan bin Saeed Al Mansouri, UAE Minister of Economy, said that the outlook for the economy is brightening despite regional and global macroeconomic challenges. “With two years into Expo 2020 Dubai, the economic growth momentum is expected to pick up on the back of a vibrant non-oil sector as the country remains on track to establish a diverse knowledge- and innovation-driven economy,” he said.

Most forecasts show that Abu Dhabi’s GDP growth is expected to pick up in 2017 to 3.9 per cent and 4.7 per cent in 2018 – outpacing the overall UAE’s GDP growth rates over the same period respectively, analysts at Knight Frank said in their UAE Market Review and Forecast 2018.

In Dubai, as the economy diversifies in line with Dubai Plan 2021, GDP growth is expected to grow 3.2 per cent in 2017 and begin to strengthen in 2018 to 3.5 per cent. Hafez Ghanem, World Bank vice-president for the Middle East and North Africa, said Dubai is a good example of how an oil exporter should diversify.

Resilient to global and regional headwinds, the UAE economy has already outpaced the rest of the GCC in economic growth in 2017 by making slow but steady progress. Forecasts by the International Monetary Fund and other institutions endorse the optimism shared by analysts.

The IMF said in its latest outlook that better days are ahead for the UAE with the economy right on track for a rebound with a 3.4 per cent surge in 2018.

Jihad Azour, director of the Middle East and Central Asia at the IMF, projected a 1.3 per cent growth in the UAE’s real GDP in 2017, while the overall GCC growth is expected to bottom out at 0.5 per cent this year, the lowest since the 0.3 per cent growth recorded in 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis.

A forecast by the Institute of International Finance said the UAE would continue to be the best-managed economy in the region. The UAE possesses large financial buffers – estimated at around $670 billion – on top of its renowned safe-haven status, excellent infrastructure and a relatively diversified business-friendly economy. All these advantages will help the economy cope with the prolonged low oil price environment, the IIF said.

The UAE is firmly on course to be one of the best performers among Middle East and North African economies over the next five years as its vibrant growth continues to be driven by trade and tourism. Garbis Iradian, chief economist at the IIF, said despite predictions of a slowdown in economic growth elsewhere in the region, the UAE’s economic performance would improve in 2017 and 2018 with firming oil prices, an improvement in global trade and the expected easing pace of fiscal adjustment. But headline growth (oil and non-oil combined) will decelerate to 1.5 per cent in 2017 due to oil production cuts under the extended Opec agreement.

The country’s bold and decisive diversification into tourism, non-hydrocarbon trade and financial services will continue to mitigate the adverse impact of low oil prices. At present, hydrocarbon GDP accounts for only 30 per cent of total GDP and oil exports for slightly less than 40 per cent of total exports.

The IIF expects non-oil real GDP growth to accelerate to three per cent in 2017 and 3.5 per cent in 2018, supported by investment and non-oil exports of goods and services. Several high-frequency economic indicators, including the purchasing managers’ index, retail sales and number of tourist arrivals over the first nine months of 2017, suggest improvement in sentiment and private sector activity. The UAE is also pressing ahead with its drive to improve the business environment and competitiveness, even from an already high global ranking by the World Bank and the World Economic Forum.

The PMI averaged 55.8 in the first three quarters of 2017 as compared with 53.8 during the same period of last year (a 50.0 threshold separates expansion from contraction). Non-oil activity in Abu Dhabi is improving after a challenging two years during which deep government spending cuts slowed activity. Key projects, such as the construction of nuclear plants and airport expansion, are progressing, albeit with delays.

In the banking sector, which is well-regulated and supervised, the UAE will witness annual credit growth recovering from 1.7 per cent at end-2017 to about five per cent in 2018.

As the UAE continues to weather the effects of low oil prices and the moderation in non-oil economic activity, inflation is forecast to remain subdued as the continued decline in rents offsets higher imports prices while inflationary pressures from the introduction of VAT early next year will be partly offset by further declines in rents, analysts pointed out.

A joint report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales and Oxford Economics says that the UAE will record an accelerated growth in 2018 to 3.6 per cent from 1.7 per cent in 2017. The momentum will further gain pace in 2019 to post 3.6 per cent growth.

In the latest World Competitiveness Ranking of 63 countries by the IMD World Competitiveness Centre, issued in May 2017, the UAE rose to 10th place, making it the only Arab country to find a place among the super league of the global top nations.

In the most recent edition of the Global Competitiveness Report 2017-2018, issued by the WEF, the UAE topped the Arab world and ranked 17th globally in the global competitiveness ranking.

Source:https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/economy/look-ahead-2018-bright-outlook-for-uae-economy

Russia and Iran to revamp Fordow nuclear facility

Russia’s Ambassador to Iran, Levan Dzhagaryan, announced Sunday that his government offered some support so that the Middle Eastern country revamps the Fordow nuclear facility, located near the northern city of Qom.

In an interview with Russia’s news agency TASS, Dzhagaryan said a delegation from the state-run nuclear agency Rosatom visited the Iran and discussed “certain practical aspects of the project to reconfigure the Fordow reactor.”

These recent Moscow-Tehran conversations are taking place within the framework of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Tehran’s nuclear program, which was signed in Vienna in the summer of 2015 and involves Iran, Russia, the United States, China, the United Kingdom, France and Germany.

According to the deal, the Persian nation should produce no weapons-grade plutonium and reduce its stockpiles of enriched uranium in return for the removal of international sanctions. After Iran implemented its obligations, former US President Barack Obama lifted sanctions. However, following his announcement of a new strategy towards Iran, President Donald Trump refused to certify the agreement on January 13, 2018 and later on said that Washington would withdraw from it unless the accord’s “disastrous flaws” were fixed.

The US President’s position is a cause of concern in both Tehran and Moscow, the Russian ambassador told TASS. “There are reasons to understand our European counterparts also worry about this, as they had applied much effort to reach the deal,” he said.

As part of the plan, Iran also agreed to convert the Fordow facility into a technology and science center and to give inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency access to the site. Early in 2017, IAEA verified the removal of excess centrifuges and infrastructure from the plant. According to NPO Nuclear Threat Initiative, 1,044 gas centrifuges remain installed in one wing of the facility, with IR-1 cascades installed separately for stable isotope production.

Sunday also marked the 39th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and amid pro and anti-government rallies, some protesters burned a white sheet reading “Barjam,” the Farsi acronym for the JCPOA.

Source:http://www.mining.com/russian-iran-revamp-fordow-nuclear-facility/

Iranian steelmakers see big boost in exports

Mobarakeh Steel Co (MSC), the largest Iranian steel producer, increased its exports sharply to 172,000 mt in the last Iranian month (to February 19), 80% higher than in the previous month and about nine times more than in the same period last year, according to statistics obtained from Iranian mines and metals group, Imidro, Monday.

However, total exports from MSC declined in the first 11 months of the current Iranian year (April-February). Some 1.05 million mt of flat-rolled products and steel slabs were exported by MSC in this period, marking a 28% decline on the year.

Steel exports from Iran’s other main steelmakers steadily increased though. Iran’s main mills exported 6.56 million mt of products in the first 11 months of the current Iranian year, mainly semi-finished products, marking a 39% increase from the same period last year.

With some 2.5 million mt of billet and slab exported during the 11-month period, Iran’s second largest producer (but the largest exporter) Khouzestan Steel Co (KSC), registered a 49% on-year increase in exports.

KSC’s products went to 17 countries, including Italy, South Korea, India, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Thailand, Oman, Egypt and the UAE, domestic news agencies reported the company’s managing director, Mohammad Keshani, as saying.

Some 1 million mt of slab was also exported during the period by MSC’s affiliated company, Hormozgan Steel Co, marking a 9% increase year on year.

Some 1.02 mt of finished and semi-finished products, including 748,000 mt of billet, was exported by Esfahan Steel Co (Esco) — up 99% on the same period last year.

In the past month alone, exports from major mills shot up 111% on year, excluding exports by smaller private-sector producers.

During the last Iranian year (to March 20), the country’s major steel producers exported 5.38 million mt of steel products, 29% up on the year, as previously reported by Imidro.

Details regarding export destinations for producers other than KSC were not immediately available.

Source:https://www.platts.com/latest-news/metals/perth-australia/iranian-steelmakers-see-big-boost-in-exports-21548811

Unbound Bahrain set to become MENA’s newest and most exciting innovation festival

Focusing on key trends and developments in the digital economy, unbound Bahrain will host some of the Middle East’s most exciting entrepreneurs next week at the Bahrain International Circuit (BIC).

The two-day event, which is part of the Startup Bahrain Week, will take place on Wednesday 7th and Thursday 8th March under the patronage of HRH Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, the Crown Prince, Deputy Supreme Commander and Chairman of the Economic Development Board (EDB). The event will link startups with corporates and creativity with entrepreneurship, while featuring live demonstrations and product showcases, panel sessions, workshops and more.

unbound Bahrain will see a range of leading speakers, including keynote remarks from Daniel Seal, Founder & CEO, unbound, H.E. Khalid Al Rumaihi, CE, Bahrain Economic Development Board, H.E. Simon Martin CMG, British Embassador to the Kingdom of Bahrain, and Mazin Khoury, Chief Executive Officer, American Express Middle East.

Daniel Seal, CEO & Founder of unbound, said: “We’re incredibly excited to be a part of the Kingdom of Bahrain’s emerging innovation ecosystem and the anchor event of the very first Startup Bahrain Week. I’m thrilled to have worked with the forward-thinking Bahrain Economic Development Board to create such a valuable moment for this game-changing region.”

As part of the two-day event, Brinc and C5 will also host ‘Face-Off on The Track’ for startups at the seed stage and scale-ups to present their companies and tell their stories live at a pitching session. $25,000 will be awarded the first place winners in each category, while the runners up will receive $10,000 each.

Also, American Express Middle East, in partnership with IBM, will host a hackathon to develop solutions to make digital payments more accessible – promising to bring together some of the most innovative minds to tackle a vital challenge. Hack@The Track offers a grand prize of $20,000 for the winning team, and $10,000 and $5,000 for the runners up, with solutions judged on simplicity, creativity, impact and design.

Mazin Khoury, CEO, American Express Middle East said: “American Express Middle East’s Hack @ the Track will bring some of the region’s finest minds from Fintech, eCommerce and Digital Innovation together in one competitive, immersive and highly exhilarating event. And as a proud sponsor of unbound Bahrain and a founding partner of Fintech Bay, we’re delighted to be a major contributor to the future development of Bahrain’s digital economy.”

Tech giant, Microsoft, will host 50 of MENA’s most innovative startups, showcasing tech from across the region as part of the ‘unbound50’. The tech company will also host a workshop on Artificial Intelligence on the Future Stage.

“Start-ups are the backbone of any economy, and Bahrain is seen as a productive ground and a regional center for them to create, innovate and grow.” said Saif Al Hosni, General Manager, Microsoft Bahrain and Oman. “We want start-ups to work smarter by having easy access to enterprise grade technologies such as the cloud, Artificial intelligence and Machine learning – so they can unleash their potential to achieve more.”

Mobile and data services operator, Zain, will celebrate the International Women’s Day -on Thursday 8th March- by hosting a Main Stage panel championing female entrepreneurship in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The panel will feature a selection of the country’s finest female founders. As a Gold Sponsor, the telecom company will provide WiFi throughout the festival and host a Zain Lounge.

John Kilmartin, Executive Director of ICT, Bahrain Economic Development Board said: “We recognise the major role entrepreneurship is playing in economies around the world – encouraging growth, accelerating economic diversification and creating jobs. We are proud to be a sponsor of Startup Week and see first-hand how startups, corporations and government entities can collaborate further and become the driving force in our economic transformation.”

Source:http://bahrainedb.com/latest-news/unbound-bahrain-set-become-menas-newest-exciting-innovation-festival/

Iraq emerging as top infrastructure investment hub

Iraq is emerging from the destruction and strategizing the rebuilding of the country to position itself as a regional super power, said Frost & Sullivan’s recent research report on Assessment of Industry Sector Opportunities in Iraq.

Bridged between Asia, Middle East and African economies and strategically placed at the mouth of Europe, Iraq possesses immense locational advantage as a nation with opportunities that stand to be untapped.

The country benefits from immense natural wealth in the form of its huge reserves of natural resources. Having been brutally battered first by the Gulf war and more recently by the ISIS conflict, Iraq is just emerging from the destruction and strategizing the rebuilding of the country to position itself as a regional super power.

Newer opportunities are emerging with the return of semblance of political stability and initiation of the nation’s redevelopment and The recent report provides a broad overview of the current status of these high priority sectors, apart from providing a brief peek into addressable opportunity areas.
The recent report provides a broad overview of the current status of these high priority sectors, apart from providing a brief peek into addressable opportunity areas.
reformation plans, according to Frost & Sullivan.

Even as the nation’s re-building opportunity proves to be humongous and unique, investors and businesses alike are in need of business intelligence in understanding the right mode of entry, the most rewarding business model and business opportunity, stated the report.

Iraq possesses one of the largest oil reserves in the world, making it a highly attractive business opportunity.

As the country also focuses on diversification initiatives, opportunities unfurl in sectors such as construction, infrastructure, healthcare, transportation, energy and telecom which are being positioned as high priority development sectors, it stated.

The recent report provides a broad overview of the current status of these high priority sectors, apart from providing a brief peek into addressable opportunity areas.

Ali Mirmohammad, senior consultant for Iraq, Frost & Sullivan said: “With the end of the ISIS war, Iraq is on the path of reconstruction and economic resurrection that calls for sustained investment to the tune of over $900 billion within the next decade.”

“Iraq plans to focus on the Oil & Gas downstream value chain as well as minerals value chain, construction and infrastructure industries, healthcare, energy, tourism and financial services sectors to move the GDP growth rate by 10 per cent annually within the next decade,” explained Mirmohammad.

Following the ISIS war, multiple sectors are in a state of disarray and would need massive re-development and newer investments.

“Oil and gas, housing, infrastructure, industry, minerals, and service sectors will account for 65 per cent of the overall investment in the next 10 years, while ICT, transportation healthcare, water, electricity, tourism and renewable energy will grab the remaining 35 per cent investment in Iraq in the next 10 years,” he added.

Mirmohammad pointed out that the country requires over $30 billion per annum of foreign direct investment (FDI) to achieve its reformation and stabilisation goals within the next 10 years.

“With more than 39 million population, Iraq remains and attractive consumer market with potential of over $40 billion,” he added.

Source:https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/iraq-emerges-top-infrastructure-investment-hub/62959957

Iran Oil Investment likely to Jump: Expert

An expert in oil market says a huge investment tide is under way in Iran’s oil industry provided that financial interactions of the country and the world normalize.
Speaking to Shana, Mahdi Asali, a veteran expert in oil market and political energy economy, said if Iran’s international relations become normalized and stable, and the country’s financial interactions with international banks and centers recover, it shall expect a huge investment tide in its oil industry by foreign financiers.

The senior expert on energy economics emphasizes the need for global investment in Iran’s oil industry in line with the world’s state-of-the-art technologies, and said: “In the face of low oil prices, OPEC countries, especially Iran and other Persian Gulf littoral states, can better compete with non-OPEC producers in attracting the world’s capital and technologies.

The following is his responses to the three questions Shana asked on the current oil market status.

Shana: Bloomberg’s news service recently quoted sources as saying that Aramco, through one of its affiliates in the United States, has been examining the possibility of sending US crude to the Asian market in February. What is your assessment of Riyadh’s efforts to export shale oil to Asian countries?

Asali: “It can be said that the Saudis are preparing for the supply of Aramco shares in the world’s financial markets, and Saudi Aramco is gradually operating like other oil and gas companies, whose shares are traded on the market and its value depends on the professional management and profitability of these companies in the global oil markets. The difference here is that Aramco’s financial resources are likely to be higher than most of the world’s oil and gas companies, as its production and export of crude oil and its byproducts are higher. These measures could be inferred as part of a Saudi strategy to prepare Aramco for performing a stronger international role. On the other hand, it is a measure to safeguard the long-term interests of itself, and in general, Saudi Arabia.

In my opinion, Saudi Arabia cannot or, for unannounced reasons, does not want to increase its crude oil output, as it has continually reduced its crude oil storage in the last two years in onshore inventories. For this reason, it has taken this clever strategy to keep its customers in the developing markets of Asia, on the one hand, and ensure its presence in the American energy market, on the other.

Saudi Arabia’s presence in the US shale boom will provide Riyadh the necessary intelligence of the industry to ensure a better position in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in order to affect the crude oil market. For example, a heated topic regarding US shale oil is the discussion that at which price range the item’s production can highly increase to slash the prices. The presence of Aramco in the shale oil market will provide the Saudis with accurate, in-depth information about production, process, and dynamics of manufacturing technology and investment in the financial markets in the industry, which will provide Saudi Arabia with the benefits and risks of these investments, which can lead to more effective positions in the oil markets and OPEC. And as a result, it will help Riyadh to better manipulate OPEC decisions.

Shana: The lack of investment in oil producing countries is one of the major concerns of consumers in the future. Under the current circumstances, how necessary do you think OPEC capacity building would be?

Asali: According to the International Energy Agency, investment in the energy sector, including investment in the global oil and gas industry, has declined by an average of around 20% per year over the past three years due to low oil prices (as compared to the 2011-2014 period). Of course, the performance of OPEC countries has proved relatively better than that of non-OPEC countries, due to lower OPEC production costs than non-OPECs, which allows OPEC members, especially its Middle East members, to profit even at low prices. From this point of view, consumers’ concerns can be realized because they believe that with the growth of demand by Asian countries and the lack of capacity building, oil prices in the coming years will undergo another leap that will put pressure on some of these countries.

It should also be noted that, as a matter of fact, at low oil prices, OPEC countries, especially Iran and other Persian Gulf OPEC members, can better capture global investments in their oil and gas industries in competition with non-OPEC countries, and if this does not happen, at least for countries like Iraq and the countries in north Africa, it is because of high risks of investment in these countries springing from their political and social instability.

Speaking of Iran, it seems, if the international relations of the country are normalized and stabilized, and the financial interactions of the country with world financial centers recover, we can witness a leap in foreign investment in the oil and gas industry of the country, which is highly needed for the reconstruction and modernization of production and refining technologies in the country.

Shana: What will be the fate of the OPEC and non-OPEC production cut agreement, and how much will an economized shale oil production threaten this deal?

Asali: OPEC and non-OPEC producers have renewed their agreement to maintain the current production ceiling and extend it until the end of 2018 and all parties of the agreement are apparently complying with it. Reports suggest restoration of the balance in the oil market and the lowering level of oil inventories to the average level of five years ago.

As long as Saudi Arabia is not able to increase its production or, for some reason, does not wish to ramp up its [crude oil] production, it tries to extend the OPEC and non-OPEC agreement so not to lose its market share to its OPEC and non-OPEC rivals and keep the prices at its desired levels. Recent market reviews suggest that the prices will reach the range of $70 per barrel.

But it should not be forgotten that in the current market, the unconventional shale oil has effectively eliminated the effectiveness of OPEC at high prices, and there is a consensus that if oil prices remain high for the time needed for investments in new shale oil production capacity building, the prices will decrease, so it is common sense that OPEC and its non-OPEC allies should prevent such an undesirable situation by ramping up production to prevent price increases which lead to hikes in shale oil glut in the market. It is for this very reason that, in recent days, Russian authorities, including Russian energy minister, have spoken about the need for the flexibility of OPEC and non-OPEC member states to reduce the level of OECD’s oil and gas inventories to the level of the last five years. It should not be forgotten that OPEC’s management of oil supply and the emphasis on compliance with production quotas would find meaning only when oil prices are declining, and in the context of a stable market and gradual price rise, an increase in the production of member states in relation to the quotas of concerted production, if not encouraged, will not be seriously prohibited. Therefore, in the coming months, we will probably see an increase in production from Russia, Kazakhstan and even those OPEC countries that are able to increase their output, such as Iraq. These conditions will be a good opportunity for our country to increase its oil production capacity, because it could add to its market share without negatively affecting prices.

Source:http://www.iran-bn.com/2018/03/02/iran-oil-investment-likely-to-jump-expert/